Why Saudi Arabia's Critical East-Works Pipeline Shutdown Threatens Global Oil Markets

A satellite image released by Vantor captures a pumping station along Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in al-Mesabaah, located southeast of Medina, following a recent drone attack and ensuing fires on September 13, 2026. In another significant blow to global oil markets, drones targeted the crucial pipeline last Thursday, forcing the kingdom to temporarily suspend operations.

Spanning 1,200km (746 miles), the pipeline typically transports roughly 4 to 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). It connects major oil-producing fields in the east with the Red Sea port of Yanbu, enabling Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely remained closed since the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran in February.

According to Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy, the shutdown serves as a precautionary step following damage and injuries sustained in the Riyadh and Medina regions. This closure coincides with sharply reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing conflict, alongside intensified Houthi attacks around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb.

The extent of the damage remains unclear, with varying estimates regarding when the pipeline can resume normal operations. Sources familiar with the incident indicated to the Reuters news agency that repairs might require five to six weeks, while another source suggested a potentially faster restart. Saudi officials confirmed that drones struck the pipeline in two distinct areas near Riyadh and Medina, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reporting resulting injuries and infrastructure damage.

Saudi authorities traced the launch of the drones to Maysan province in southeastern Iraq, near the Iranian border—a region where Iran-aligned armed groups maintain a long-standing presence. This incident follows a March strike near the Saudi-Aramco-ExxonMobil refinery in Yanbu, which temporarily disrupted crude loadings from the Red Sea port before shipments recovered within days.

Built in 1981, the 1,200km (745-mile) Petroline has a maximum capacity of seven million bpd. However, actual flows had dropped to about two million bpd in August, according to Kpler, marking the lowest monthly level since January due to Houthi-related disruptions in the Red Sea. In response to the conflict, Saudi Arabia elevated western crude shipments to roughly 4-5 million bpd, representing about 4 to 5 percent of global supply.

Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz accounted for more than a fifth of global oil supplies, roughly 20 million bpd. Industry estimates cited by Reuters now place those flows between 6 and 9 million bpd. While Saudi Arabia redirected crude toward the Red Sea, continued security vulnerabilities threaten the pipeline, storage facilities, and tankers.

Sources close to Reuters indicate that if the pipeline stays closed, Yanbu holds enough stock to sustain exports for five to seven days. Furthermore, Egyptian facilities in Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir storing Saudi oil could extend supplies for several additional days. Nevertheless, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Saudi oil supply dropped to a more than three-decade low in August, projecting a 5.7 million bpd decline in global supplies this year.

Although stockpiles and strategic releases have cushioned Brent crude prices in the $70-$90 range, prolonged disruptions risk depleting reserves and driving prices higher. The IEA warned in June that continued drawdowns could reach critical thresholds, potentially pushing Brent to $150 a barrel if inventories approach exceptionally low levels. Gavekal Research cautioned that if Yanbu goes offline, it would spell disaster for global refining capacity.