Tehran's Regional Ambitions Undermine Diplomacy and Threaten Gulf Stability

Recent developments in the Middle East have highlighted a stark contradiction in Tehran’s foreign policy, marked by alarming Houthi gains in Yemen and the suspension of planned Iran-Gulf talks in Oman. Iran cannot credibly pursue better relations with its Gulf neighbours while simultaneously enabling armed groups that launch attacks against those very states.

The latest escalation in Yemen has exposed this deep-seated inconsistency. The Houthis, bolstered by Iranian support, have claimed responsibility for an increased number of attacks on Saudi Arabia as they strive to expand their strategic footprint around the Red Sea and Bab Al Mandeb. This ongoing fighting has displaced an estimated 80,000 people and derailed tangible diplomatic progress aimed at averting a wider regional war.

Diplomacy cannot be separated from realities on the ground. While officials deliberate on de-escalation strategies between Iran and its neighbours, the Houthis and other Iranian-backed armed proxies based in Iraq continue to fire missiles and drones toward Saudi Arabia, while also threatening vital maritime corridors.

The consequences of this offensive stretch far beyond the immediate battlefield. The rebels' growing dominance around the Bab Al Mandeb affords Tehran strategic leverage well beyond its own coastline, introducing new pressures for international shipping and energy supplies. Furthermore, the conflict has intensified the suffering of impoverished Yemenis and triggered refugee spillover into neighboring regions, with Djibouti reporting the arrival of more than 2,000 Yemeni refugees.

Ultimately, Tehran cannot have it both ways. Pursuing understandings with Gulf neighbours is incompatible with utilizing a regional network to project hostile power. While serious dialogue remains essential, any future modus vivendi must directly address the full scope of Iranian regional power, including its missile and drone programs, support for proxies, and threats to maritime security. Until Tehran demonstrates that its ambitions do not compromise regional stability, diplomacy will remain constrained by ongoing power plays.