Saudi Arabia Confronts Critical Security Choices as Houthi Escalation Threatens Global Oil Supplies

Yemen’s Houthi rebel fighters have broken free from front lines that remained frozen since 2022, surging forward to capture key positions near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This movement opens a new front in the regional conflict that escalated following US and Israeli attacks on Iranian allies in February.

In recent days, Iran-backed Houthi fighters seized control of the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands and the Red Sea port city of Mocha. These actions tighten the group's grip on vital energy routes despite resistance from government-aligned forces in Yemen.

The importance of the Bab al-Mandeb strait grew further after Iran restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in response to US and Israeli strikes. Analysts warn that these advances could increase upward pressure on global fuel prices.

For Saudi Arabia, the threat is immediate. A drone strike on the East-West Pipeline, a 1,200km (750-mile) conduit carrying about 4 percent of global oil supplies from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, forced an indefinite shutdown. With this pipeline disabled and Houthis securing the Red Sea coast near Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia faces the squeeze of its two main export routes around Hormuz.

Baraa Shiban, a researcher and political analyst on Yemen and the Gulf at the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), noted that Iran is leveraging its Houthi alliance to threaten nearly a third of the global oil economy. “Iran knew it couldn’t win a traditional battlefront war, so it is inflicting economic warfare on the world,” Shiban said.

As the conflict approaches Riyadh's economic lifelines, the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed in August by Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan, gains urgency. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated earlier this month that the pact activates during unprovoked attacks on Saudi Arabia or if fighting spills over from Yemen.

Despite this, the exact nature of any military intervention remains uncertain. “Saudi Arabia will unfortunately have to find a military option against the Houthis, whether that is limited or long-term,” Shiban said, noting that Riyadh must test the Mecca pact alongside its long-standing alliance with Washington.

Meanwhile, Washington currently shows little appetite for engaging the Houthis directly. Reports from Axios indicated that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) called US President Donald Trump twice to request military action, but Trump refused both times. Trump later stated that the Houthis assured his administration they do not wish to fight US forces, and US Vice President JD Vance confirmed direct talks are underway between Washington, the Houthi rebels, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Elisabeth Kendall, president of Girton College, Cambridge and an authority on Yemeni affairs, criticized these direct talks. “The Houthis crave political recognition and the international spotlight. Well, now they have it. These kinds of direct talks confer legitimacy,” she said.

Despite a lack of immediate US backing, analysts emphasize that Saudi Arabia retains strong military capabilities. The kingdom operates a well-funded air force and air-defence network, supports Yemeni government troops in Taiz, and led a multi-year coalition against the group prior to the 2022 truce.

“It is misguided to believe that Saudi Arabia doesn’t have an option for deterrence and retaliation without US support,” said Cinzia Bianco of the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggesting Riyadh could use the Mecca pact or act unilaterally through creative, asymmetric methods.