Has Washington Abandoned Bab al-Mandeb? The Evolving US-Gulf Security Dynamic

US President Donald Trump walks away from Marine One at Shannon Airport in Ireland, September 13, 2026. [Kylie Cooper/Reuters]

On September 12, 2026, United States President Donald Trump stood in Dublin alongside Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin and stated that the Houthis “called us, and they don’t want to fight us”. He added that the group was “allowing ships to pass” and that the situation would “work out very well”. His remarks coincided with Houthi forces completing their takeover of the coastal town of Dhubab and Perim (Mayyun) Island, which divides the Bab al-Mandeb strait into two shipping channels, following their seizure of the strategic port of Mocha. This granted them a direct presence at the entrance to a crucial global waterway.

Trump made these comments against the backdrop of a Houthi announcement declaring a blockade on Saudi oil supplies to Asia and Saudi commercial shipping, marking a critical moment for the traditional “security-for-oil” framework. Developments at Bab al-Mandeb reflect a broader pattern of US retreats from long-standing security commitments that previously supported Washington's relationship with Gulf states.

During his appearance in Dublin, Trump noted that the Houthis had reached out to avoid a direct confrontation with Washington. He indicated they were permitting most maritime traffic to pass, while pointing to unresolved issues involving an unnamed nation—interpreted as Saudi Arabia—and promising resolution. Despite maritime sources contradicting his statements, Trump also asserted that the United States maintained tight control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Domestically, Trump's stance intersects with political pressures surrounding upcoming congressional elections, where avoiding new Middle Eastern conflicts remains a priority for maintaining political support. Meanwhile, Saudi officials rejected reports alleging that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had urged Trump to strike the Houthis prior to the coastal takeover, emphasizing instead that the kingdom maintains the capability to manage its own confrontations.

Amid these geopolitical shifts, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, traveled to Riyadh for discussions with Prince Mohammed to explore ways to support Saudi Arabia without committing direct US military forces. The ongoing events highlight a transition from comprehensive security guarantees to a more conditional and limited approach, prompting Gulf nations to pursue alternative defense arrangements and collective regional strategies.