Egypt Warns Military Action Cannot Be Ruled Out Over Ethiopia's Plans for Three New Nile Dams

Egypt has erupted in fury over Ethiopia's declared plans to build three more Nile dams, with official media in Cairo strongly suggesting military action could not be ruled out. Egypt, the most populous Arab nation with 110 million people, depends on the Nile for almost all its freshwater. It is already alarmed by the possible reduction of its share of the river's waters as a result of a giant dam Ethiopia has built on the Nile.

Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or Gerd, was completed last year. Filling up the reservoir behind it has so far had little impact on Egypt's share of the Nile water, thanks to plentiful rainfall on the Ethiopian highlands. However, Egypt's primary concern is that this might not be the case if there is a persistent drought. The Gerd and the three proposed dams are on the Blue Nile, the river's main tributary and the source of about 85 per cent of the water reaching Egypt, one of the world's driest nations.

Ethiopia insists that the Gerd and the three proposed dams are part of its development plans. The Gerd, it has repeatedly assured Cairo, poses no threat to the interests of Egypt and fellow downstream nation Sudan. The uproar in Egypt was sparked by comments from Habtamu Itefa, Ethiopia's Water and Energy Minister, in a television interview last week, in which he said his country intended to control the flow of the Nile to Egypt and Sudan.

“Ethiopia's bid to control the flow of the Nile lays bare a dangerous intention whose objective is not legitimate development,” a government source told Egypt's official Mena news agency. “It's an attempt to impose a de facto situation, monopolise an international river and threatens the rights of the two downstream nations. Egypt will not allow this to happen,” said the government source.

Egypt, whose army is rated as the largest in the Middle East, has yet to say what action, if any, it intends to take to prevent Ethiopia from building more Nile dams. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has repeatedly ruled out military action concerning the Gerd and insists diplomacy is the only route, stating that his country will not compromise on its share of Nile waters.

However, the comment by the government source and the rhetoric used by hosts of pro-government TV talk shows make clear that military action could be considered should Ethiopia go ahead and build the new dams. Such action, broadcast hosts and social media posts argue, would fall within Egypt's rights in the face of a national security threat. Mr El Sisi has repeatedly stated that water is an existential issue to Egypt, which has in recent years invested billions of dollars on water conservation projects, recycling fresh water and building desalination plants.

More than a decade of negotiations between Egypt and Sudan on one side and Ethiopia on the other to reach a legally binding agreement on the running of the Gerd have failed to produce a deal. US mediation in the dispute has also yet to produce results at a time when the Trump administration is preoccupied with the Iran war and midterm elections due in early November that could cost the Republicans their majority in congress.

Social media accounts loyal to Mr El Sisi and his government have in recent days been full of suggestions that Egypt could resort to force to resolve the dispute with Ethiopia, posting images of Egyptian warplanes, naval ships and special forces in full combat gear. “Egypt will not allow the construction of these dams under any circumstances,” warned Ahmed Musa, a prominent government supporter among talk show hosts.

Ethiopia, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, insists Egypt has nothing to fear from its upstream dam-building. Meanwhile, Abbas Sharaky, Egypt's top Nile expert and a Cairo University professor, delivered a stern warning to Addis Ababa, stating that Ethiopia would be wrong to believe Egypt will remain silent.

Egypt has in recent years sought to pressurise Ethiopia by bolstering its ties with Addis Ababa's Horn of Africa neighbours, flexing its military muscle in the Red Sea, and campaigning against Ethiopia's agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland. Egypt has also been boosting military co-operation with Ethiopia's rival Eritrea and securing contracts with Djibouti.

According to Egyptian experts, the three proposed dams that Ethiopia intends to build on the Blue Nile would each have a storage capacity of 30 to 40 billion cubic metres, while the Gerd's water reservoir has a capacity of around 75 billion cubic metres. Egypt's annual share of the Nile water under a 1959 agreement with Sudan is 55 billion cubic metres.