Public Perception of UK Crime Dramatically Conflicts With Reality, Study Reveals

A new study from King’s College London reveals that public perceptions of crime in the UK are fundamentally flawed, with most people believing crime rates are rising when they have actually been decreasing.

Research titled Wrongful convictions? Misperceptions of crime among the UK public demonstrates that public views are inaccurate across nearly every measure, including the number of crime victims, the ethnicity of offenders, and police officer numbers. The UK, particularly London, has developed an international reputation for high crime, fueled partly by comments from Donald Trump, who claimed offending in the city had "gone through the roof" amid his ongoing feud with Mayor Sadiq Khan.

While London has experienced a recent surge in phone thefts, Mr Khan noted that the city maintains a homicide rate lower than most US states. Polling conducted for the study shows that 37 per cent of respondents believe murder rates increased between 2010 and 2025, whereas official figures indicate they have dropped by 20 per cent.

Similarly, 83 per cent of people believe mobile phone theft has risen over the same period, despite UK-wide figures showing a decline of around 70 per cent. Efforts by the Met Police have also driven down mobile phone thefts within London. Furthermore, 56 per cent believe domestic burglary has increased and 62 per cent believe vehicle theft has risen, even though both categories have dropped by approximately 50 per cent. Of the five crime types evaluated in the study, only shoplifting has seen an actual increase since 2010—rising by about 70 per cent—a trend correctly identified by 84 per cent of the public.

The study also highlights misconceptions regarding offender demographics, with the public wrongly assuming that the majority of individuals convicted of homicide belong to an ethnic minority. In reality, 64 per cent of those convicted are white. Notably, supporters of the right-wing populist Reform UK party are most likely to underestimate this figure, estimating it to be 30 per cent.

Professor Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, explained that this gap between perception and reality stems from human psychology alongside media, social media, and political incentives. He noted a deep negativity bias that tunes people toward perceived threats, combined with a romanticized view of past safety. Professor Duffy added that inflated crime estimates often serve as a way for individuals to express their broader concerns.

Although he did not mention Donald Trump by name, Mr Khan posted on X stating that online voices are not always accurate. Highlighting new data showing record low murder rates and a homicide rate lower than every US state, he emphasized that the capital's approach to tackling crime and its underlying causes is successfully reducing violence across the city.