High-Stakes State Elections in Germany Threaten Chancellor Friedrich Merz Amid Far-Right Surges

Voters in two German states are heading to the polls on Sunday as significant gains by the far-right and far-left threaten the political future of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. According to the AFP news agency, Merz has convened a crisis meeting of his Christian Democratic Union party (CDU), skipped the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, and cleared his schedule to manage the fallout from elections in Berlin and the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

Pressure on Merz has intensified following a major defeat delivered to the CDU by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks prior. The AfD narrowly missed securing an absolute majority that would have enabled them to govern independently. Just 16 months into his tenure, Merz faces plunging approval ratings of around 14 percent amidst stalled economic and social welfare reforms with coalition partners, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), leading party members to question his leadership.

Approximately 2.5 million citizens are eligible to vote in Berlin, alongside nearly 1.3 million voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Polling stations open at 8am local time and close at 6pm.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU remains a minor player as the primary contest unfolds between the SPD’s state premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD lead candidate Leif-Erik Holm. Public broadcaster ZDF reports that the AfD polls at 36 percent against the SPD at 37 percent, while the CDU sits perilously close to the 5 percent threshold required to maintain seats in the state parliament.

Meanwhile, in Berlin, the ruling CDU faces a tight race against the far-left Die Linke, an organization appealing to youth with aggressive housing crisis solutions, corporate power limits, and a pro-Moscow stance. A defeat in Berlin would deliver another severe setback to Merz.

While regional contests typically attract minimal international attention, the recent rise of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt—viewed as a stepping stone toward the 2029 federal elections—has created widespread concern across Europe.