Seven Ethiopian Armed Groups Form Coalition to Overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Government

Seven Ethiopian armed groups have officially announced a coalition aimed at removing the federal government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establishing an inclusive transitional government. Revealed on Sunday, the new bloc is named the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, or simply the Alliance for Survival.

The coalition brings together several prominent factions: the Amhara Fano National Movement, which has been engaged in conflict with federal forces in the Amhara region since 2023; the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a dominant political force in Ethiopia for nearly three decades prior to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed taking office; and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has fought federal forces in Oromia since 2018. Four smaller entities—the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo), the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement—complete the alliance.

Discussions among the leaders of these groups regarding the alliance had been ongoing for about a year, according to a source close to Fano who spoke to Al Jazeera. This development follows recent clashes in the northern region of Tigray, which marked a severe breach of a 2022 peace agreement and escalated concerns about a potential return to full-scale warfare.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed assumed power in 2018 promising extensive reforms, including the release of journalists, activists, and other political prisoners, alongside the lifting of bans on multiple political parties. However, human rights activists and political opponents argue that his administration has rolled back those democratic gains over recent years.

In their joint statement, the alliance criticizes the government for establishing a dictatorial rule that threatens to fracture the nation. The coalition outlines plans for a charter-guided transitional government intended to resolve ongoing conflicts, safeguard rights, and facilitate a national dialogue.

Military and political leaders from the participating factions, including OLA leader Jaal Marroo and Fano leader Zemene Kassie, had previously hinted at or confirmed the formation of the agreement in various interviews earlier this month. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government has yet to issue a public response to Sunday's announcement.

Historical alignments in the region have been complex; Fano previously fought alongside federal forces against Tigrayan fighters during the Tigray war from 2020 to 2022. Furthermore, both Amhara and Tigray continue to lay claim to Western Tigray, an area administered by Amhara nationalists since the conclusion of that conflict.

Ethiopian academic Eyob Tilahun noted that the rival factions chose to unite out of a shared perception that they face a collective survival threat from the government. Although the Pretoria peace agreement of 2022 successfully concluded the war between the federal government and Tigray's forces, critical issues surrounding disarmament and the official legal status of the TPLF remain unresolved, with active fighting persisting in both the Amhara and Oromia regions.