Anatomy of Collapse: Why Humanitarian Truces Keep Failing in Sudan's Devastating Civil War

Efforts to secure truces in Sudan continue to hit dead ends, with ongoing fighting severely worsening the nation's dire humanitarian situation. Renewed international initiatives, spearheaded by the United States to implement temporary ceasefires and allow desperately needed aid into the country, have repeatedly failed. The United Nations has warned that Sudan's humanitarian system is on the brink of collapse as fighting intensifies.

The civil war erupted in April 2023 following months of tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict has expanded across 13 of Sudan’s 18 states, displacing 14 million people, causing tens of thousands of deaths, and triggering one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Major mediation efforts, beginning with the Jeddah Declaration in May 2023 mediated by the US and Saudi Arabia, alongside regional initiatives by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union (AU), have all collapsed due to repeated violations by rival factions.

Recently, the US intensified diplomatic engagement through the Aligned for Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan (ALPS) initiative in Geneva, partnering with Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, the UN, and the AU. US Senior Advisor for Arab and African Affairs Massad Boulos announced $375m in humanitarian funding last week, pushing for a 90-day humanitarian truce. Despite these efforts, fighting continues on multiple fronts, including South Kordofan, Blue Nile state, and Abu Qauod west of El Obeid.

Analysts attribute the failure of these truces to the political ambitions of SAF leader Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF head Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. Sudanese academic Fathi Abu Ammar suggested that military leadership is deliberately stalling negotiations to maintain power, with al-Burhan reportedly preparing to formalize his rule. Meanwhile, supporters of the SAF believe military advances place them in a position of strength, rendering compromise unnecessary. Mohammed Ibrahim al-Rashid of the Center for International Political Relations Studies (Ma’alim) noted that the government feels reassured by ongoing military progress.

Experts like Cameron Hudson, a former adviser to the US envoy to Sudan, argue that international diplomatic approaches relying solely on punitive measures and sanctions have failed. Hudson contends that lasting peace will remain out of reach until the United States and other mediators introduce meaningful incentives and motives for peace rather than merely isolating the warring parties.