High Stakes in New York: What Leaders Want from the Upcoming US-GCC Summit

Leaders of the six Gulf Cooperation Council states are set to meet United States President Donald Trump in New York on Tuesday, as the US-Israel war on Iran nears seven months. The meeting, to be held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, brings together countries that have borne much of the fallout from a war they did not start.

Since the war began on February 28, Iran has repeatedly struck US bases across the Middle East as well as airports, energy facilities and hotels. The conflict has hit Gulf nations particularly hard, as their oil and gas exports have been disrupted, causing a global energy crisis. A June memorandum of understanding briefly raised hopes of an end to the war, but it collapsed last month amid disputes over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.

These talks come as Donald Trump says he faces a “big decision” on the war, and as Iran’s president and foreign minister are also in New York for the United Nations General Assembly.

Donald Trump is set to meet the leaders from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which form the GCC, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Donald Trump told US media outlet Axios on Thursday that he wanted to meet the GCC leaders as he faced a “big decision” on the war and wanted to speak with them directly. Experts note there are two interconnected issues: the US-Israel war on Iran and the conflict between Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed government forces in Yemen.

Broadly, experts say, the GCC nations share a common goal for the meeting. Luciano Zaccara, a researcher with the New Ground Research think tank in Doha, Qatar, told Al Jazeera that the GCC has shared positions on regional security and de-escalation.

“With Donald Trump recently threatening to ‘wipe out’ Iran, I expect the six GCC states, or at least most of them, to convey to the US president their grave concerns about the likely consequences of another round of intense US military strikes on Iran,” Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, told Al Jazeera. He added that they will likely seek to underscore their own vulnerabilities and persuade Donald Trump to make certain concessions to Tehran.

Chief among their common concerns is freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, according to Ahmed Helal, managing director for the Gulf region at The Asia Group.

Despite common goals, the Gulf states have experienced divergent outcomes from the war and will also look to persuade Donald Trump to address their particular predicaments, Ahmed Helal said. The United Arab Emirates has been able to keep exporting oil by pipeline to its port of Fujairah, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Qatar, whose gas exports depend on the strait, has seen its liquefied natural gas shipments severely curtailed. Speaking at an event in New York on Sunday, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani described the economic fallout as an “earthquake”. Saudi Arabia faces immense pressure as the Houthis gain ground in Yemen, intensifying lobbying for US strikes on the group.

Predicting what the US president plans has been difficult. Luciano Zaccara suggested the US might expect more direct GCC engagement against Iran in exchange for direct US intervention to stop Houthi attacks. While Donald Trump has not ruled out another major military escalation, his administration appears open to exploring diplomatic options, including rumors of an indirect US-Iran meeting.

Ahmed Helal noted that the administration’s focus remains domestic with midterm elections approaching and low approval ratings, creating immense pressure to lower petrol prices while remaining politically sensitive to oil price spikes. The talks are unlikely to produce a breakthrough, with a best-case scenario being an agreement to return to negotiations potentially brokered by Qatar or Pakistan.