New Poll Reveals Significant Drop in Palestinian Support for Armed Struggle and Hamas

Palestinian support for armed struggle has experienced a notable decline over the past ten months, with a majority of citizens now favoring negotiations to end the Israeli occupation and secure statehood, according to a recent opinion poll. The Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) conducted this survey across both Gaza and the West Bank earlier this month, following an announcement by President Mahmoud Abbas regarding upcoming presidential and legislative elections scheduled for November 2027.

The survey findings also followed statements from Hamas indicating that the group had positively engaged with a US-led Board of Peace plan for Gaza—which entails the disarmament of the group—amid an escalation of deadly Israeli settler attacks in the occupied West Bank. Based in Ramallah, the PCPSR operates as an independent, non-profit polling and research think tank.

According to the report, twenty-seven per cent of surveyed individuals selected armed struggle as the most effective method for establishing an independent Palestinian state and ending the occupation, marking a decrease from 41 per cent in October. Conversely, 44 per cent of respondents supported negotiations, compared to 36 per cent ten months prior.

Despite this reduction in backing for armed struggle as a concept, public opinion remained divided regarding its practical efficacy. Exactly half of the respondents stated that armed struggle had been effective, while the other half argued that it had only contributed to further destruction in Gaza and the West Bank. The Gaza Strip has suffered immense devastation since the onset of the war launched by Israel following the October 7, 2023 attacks in southern Israel, which resulted in 1,200 deaths. The ongoing conflict has claimed the lives of more than 73,000 Gazans, with human rights organizations warning that the true death toll may be higher due to thousands remaining buried beneath the rubble.

Public perception concerning Hamas has similarly shifted over the past ten months. Confidence in the ability of Hamas to represent Palestinians dropped from 41 per cent to 28 per cent, while over 40 per cent of respondents indicated that neither Hamas nor its rival faction, Fatah, deserves to lead.

Discontent with the broader Palestinian leadership extends to President Abbas, with 80 per cent of the population calling for his resignation. President Abbas's approval rating has fallen to 18 per cent, down from 21 per cent ten months ago. Meanwhile, the most popular political figure identified in the survey is imprisoned activist Marwan Barghouti, who is favored by 39 per cent of respondents as a successor to President Abbas.

PCPSR director Khalil Shikaki, a co-author of the report, noted in an interview with The National that Marwan Barghouti currently commands a majority of public support, contrasting with the plurality observed previously. Marwan Barghouti maintains his popularity despite being imprisoned in Israel since 2002, with 54 per cent of the 1,270 surveyed Palestinians placing him ahead of both President Abbas and Khalil Al Hayya, who assumed the role of Hamas political leader last month.

Although Hamas has confirmed its intention to participate in the November parliamentary election, the PCPSR survey highlights widespread public skepticism. Just under half of the respondents expressed belief that the vote will occur on schedule, and two-thirds expressed doubt that any election held would be free and fair.

The Palestinian Authority continues to face mounting pressure to implement reforms from both its domestic populace and the international community, particularly as additional nations formally recognize a Palestinian state. Countries including Canada, the UK, France, and Australia extended recognition last year, raising the total number of endorsing nations to over 80 per cent of UN member states. Mr Shikaki noted that the realization of these elections depends heavily on international backing, stating that the scheduled vote will proceed as long as the pressure that prompted President Abbas to make this decision remains active.