Morocco's PAM Secures Election Victory, Setting Stage for Complex Coalition Negotiations

Morocco’s Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) has secured the highest number of seats in the recent parliamentary elections, placing the party at the center of upcoming government formation talks. As the nation grapples with the urgent need to address youth unemployment and finalize preparations for the 2030 World Cup, the liberal-centrist PAM captured 97 out of 395 seats in the House of Representatives. Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit announced these preliminary results on Thursday, following Wednesday's vote.

Meanwhile, the National Rally of Independents (RNI), led by current premier Aziz Akhannouch, secured 66 seats, closely followed by the right-wing Istiqlal Party with 65 seats. This North African kingdom's electoral event marks the first parliamentary vote since Gen Z protests a year ago brought widespread attention to public discontent regarding job creation and public services. Furthermore, the election follows closely after tens of thousands of Moroccans crossed into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, creating significant concern within the EU.

Because PAM fell short of an absolute majority, the party must now build a coalition to establish a government. Under Morocco’s constitution, King Mohammed VI is tasked with appointing the head of government from the winning party. Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri emerges as a potential candidate for prime minister from PAM; if appointed, she would become the second woman in the Arab region to hold this position, following Tunisia’s Najla Bouden.

PAM's electoral campaign received a substantial boost following the strategic recruitment of Fouzi Lekjaa, the budget minister and football federation chief, who joined the party just weeks before the election. Mr. Lekjaa's rising prominence stems from his success in elevating Morocco’s national football team on the global stage, leading some observers to view him as another viable candidate for prime minister, though he has not confirmed whether he would accept the post.

Although PAM, RNI, and Istiqlal have governed in a coalition since 2021, deteriorating relations between PAM and RNI threaten to complicate the current coalition negotiations, with PAM leadership having explicitly ruled out renewing their partnership with RNI. Conversely, the election witnessed a notable resurgence for the Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD), which rebounded from a dismal 13 seats in 2021 to claim 54 seats this time, aided by the return of former prime minister Abdelilah Benkirane to lead their campaign.

Outgoing Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch, a billionaire businessman who steered the governing coalition since 2021, did not run for reelection after stepping down as RNI leader earlier this year. Voter turnout dropped significantly to 38.02 percent—down from approximately 50 percent in 2021 and marking the lowest level since 2007 when turnout was 36.8 percent, according to official data covering roughly 15.8 million registered voters out of a voting-age population of 27 million.

Looking ahead, the incoming government will shoulder the responsibility of managing the final phases of a roughly $20 billion infrastructure initiative tied to Morocco’s joint hosting of the 2030 World Cup alongside Spain and Portugal. During the campaign, PAM pledged to create 1 million jobs and boost investments in healthcare, social protection, and wages. The party now faces the critical challenge of successfully assembling a governing administration while confronting the broader political disengagement highlighted by low voter turnout.