Iran Threatens Retaliation Against Neighbors Over US Aviation Sanctions, Sparking Regional Travel Chaos

Iran has issued sharp warnings to neighboring countries, threatening retaliation if they enforce new United States sanctions aimed at cutting off Iranian airlines from international operations. This development threatens to cause further chaos in air travel across a region already strained by nearly seven months of the US-Israel war on Iran.

“I urge all our neighbouring countries not to get involved in the United States adventure. This adventure will very soon end in failure,” Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated to Iranian state media.

The threats emerged after Iranian carriers were forced to cancel numerous international flights due to US warnings that airports and aviation service providers would face secondary sanctions for doing business with Iran. The Iranian Students’ News Agency reported that all flights to and from the United Arab Emirates were cancelled on Thursday. Additionally, Azerbaijan and Georgia confirmed the suspension of Iranian flights on Wednesday, while connections to Baghdad and Muscat have similarly been halted. Although several flights to Turkiye and China remain active, many others to these destinations have also been scrapped.

The immediate catalyst for Tehran's reaction is Washington's push to isolate the Iranian aviation sector. The US Department of the Treasury recently announced sanctions targeting Iran's remaining airlines along with foreign intermediaries assisting their operations. These measures expanded existing restrictions on Mahan Air to encompass 27 Iranian airlines and suspended authorizations permitting various aviation links with Iran. The US claims Mahan Air maintains ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned that airports and companies servicing Iranian aircraft risk losing access to the US financial system, warning that providing fuel, landing services, or tickets to Iranian carriers could trigger US penalties.

While Iran has not clarified the precise nature of its potential response against neighboring airports, and Rezaei did not specify if the retaliation would be diplomatic, economic, or military, experts debate the feasibility of the threats. Legally, Iran cannot dictate whether a sovereign nation's airport accepts Iranian aircraft, nor does Washington possess the direct authority to close another country's airspace. However, the US can leverage secondary sanctions to make servicing Iranian aircraft financially perilous for local fuel suppliers, ground handlers, and ticketing businesses.

During the early months of the current conflict, Iran demonstrated its capacity to heavily disrupt Gulf air travel after launching missiles and drones starting February 28 at Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Jordan. These nations temporarily closed their airspace, and regional carriers took months to normalize schedules. The International Air Transport Association projects that Middle Eastern airlines are on track to incur a collective $4.3bn loss in 2026, while the World Travel & Tourism Council estimated in March that the conflict costs the region roughly $600m daily in international visitor spending. Furthermore, Tourism Economics previously forecasted a 25 percent decline in international travel to Gulf countries for 2026.

Despite these tensions, Wolfgang Pusztai, a security and defence analyst and former Austrian defence attache, told Al Jazeera that he views a direct Iranian attack on regional airports as extremely unlikely. Pusztai noted that the practical impact of US measures may remain restricted because Iran maintains aviation links with nations less inclined to enforce Washington's directives, such as Turkiye, Pakistan, and China. Instead, Pusztai suggests the primary impact is psychological, reinforcing perceptions of isolation among Iranians as international flights vanish instantly.

The tangible consequences are already visible for travelers. International flight capacity originating from Iran dropped by 49 percent in August 2026 compared to the previous year, according to Cirium, forcing thousands of passengers toward land crossings into countries like Turkiye and Armenia. For neighboring nations, the ongoing friction adds deeper uncertainty to a regional travel sector that saw passenger traffic at major hubs like Dubai International Airport fall by 31 percent in the first half of 2026 compared to the prior year.