Ethiopian Military Vows Restraint as Renewed Fighting Sparks Civil War Fears

Ethiopia is facing the threat of renewed conflict as armed groups launch a new offensive in the northern part of the country. Despite rising tensions, Ethiopia’s federal military has stated that it is handling the situation with restraint amid growing fears of another civil war.

In his first public comments regarding the recent military developments, Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula stated that the army was responding to provocations from the Tigray front with "wisdom and restraint." He accused Eritrea of funding and supporting armed groups to weaken Ethiopia, describing the “Tsimdo” alliance as an extension of hostile foreign interference that cannot confront the state without outside backing. Eritrea, concerned that landlocked Ethiopia might seek to invade it to secure access to the Red Sea, has denied these accusations.

Fighting has spread from Tigray into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions following the formation of a new coalition. Seven armed groups announced an alliance under the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, which is committed to removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. In Afar, recent battles have centered around Abala as the military attempts to prevent rebels from taking control.

In North Wollo, an Amhara zone bordering Tigray, the army reported on Thursday that it killed 272 Tigrayan fighters and wounded 260 during a counter-offensive, marking heavy casualties for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Meanwhile, the TPLF’s Tigray Army claimed that the federal government initiated a full-scale offensive involving infantry, mechanized units, and drones. Abdisalam Balema, a TPLF central committee member, told Al Jazeera that the situation had escalated into a full war. Clashes have also persisted around Sama, Soqota, and Raya Alamata, with government forces advancing toward Alamata.

The army command stated it favors a strategy of “strategic calm” over a large-scale military confrontation, asserting that the Tigray front is losing popular support and facing internal leadership divisions. Internet access across northern Ethiopia was reportedly cut on Friday, just a day after the UN expressed alarm over reports that drones were being deployed against civilians in the region.

This renewed violence places severe strain on the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which previously ended a devastating two-year civil war in Tigray. The escalation follows Washington's recent decision to lift sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea tied to past atrocities, citing the expiration of the national emergency. This presents the most serious challenge yet to the peace accord and raises concerns of a broader regional conflict.

Addressing the UN General Assembly, Ethiopia’s president portrayed the nation as a pillar of regional stability, criticizing unnamed external actors for interfering in domestic affairs while emphasizing Addis Ababa's role in supporting peace initiatives in neighboring Sudan.

Alemayehu Weldemariam, a law professor at Indiana University, argued that the federal government bears significant responsibility for the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement. He noted that key provisions of the 2022 cessation of hostilities were undermined by the federal government itself through fuel, service, and cash restrictions imposed on Tigray, alongside the failure to establish a promised interim administration. He stated that what was intended to be an interim arrangement became permanent, with Tigray excluded from subsequent national elections.