Strategic Standoff: Why Donald Trump Rejected Iran's Truce Offer and Chose to Wait

US President Donald Trump has rejected Tehran's latest proposal aimed at ending the ongoing conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts suggesting that Washington believes it holds the stronger hand by delaying an agreement. Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Donald Trump dismissed the proposal, claiming that Iran is pushing for a deal because it is struggling immensely in the conflict.

“They want to make a deal, and I think that’s fine,” Donald Trump said. “I’d like to make a deal too. But that deal would not be acceptable.” Responding on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that Tehran had observed Donald Trump's initial reaction but had not yet received an official formal response through mediators. Diplomatic efforts have seen Qatar step in to facilitate talks between Iran and the US on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.

The rejected seven-day proposal from Iran outlined several key demands: Washington would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, lift sanctions on Iranian oil sales, release approximately $12bn in frozen Iranian assets, and observe a comprehensive regional ceasefire covering areas including Lebanon and Yemen. In exchange, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and initiate final negotiations with Washington. These terms closely mirror a June memorandum of understanding (MoU) that ultimately collapsed due to disagreements over implementation terms, triggering renewed military escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, Donald Trump's calculus relies on the belief that economic isolation and the naval blockade are exerting sufficient pressure on Tehran, rendering its proposal a sign of weakness rather than an offer requiring immediate acceptance. “Trump’s calculation looks fairly straightforward. He believes the combination of the naval blockade and economic isolation is finally squeezing Iran hard enough that Tehran’s latest proposal is evidence of weakness rather than an offer Washington needs to seize,” Andreas Krieg told Al Jazeera.

While the Trump administration continues to tighten economic measures—including recent aviation sanctions announced after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined a broader pressure campaign—analysts like Richard Weitz of the NATO Defence College suggest the White House may be betting on securing more favorable concessions over time, similar to the dynamics that led to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. However, this strategy carries significant political risks for Donald Trump as upcoming midterm elections approach, with polls showing widespread public opposition to the conflict and mounting concerns over fuel and transportation costs.

Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, warned that Iran might decide to make Donald Trump face political repercussions for rejecting the proposal as the midterms draw closer, noting that the Republican Party faces vulnerability in current polls. Furthermore, experts caution that excessive economic pressure might backfire, pushing Iran to escalate tensions through alternative corridors like the Bab al-Mandeb strait, where Iran-aligned Houthis hold significant strategic leverage. As Ross Harrison of the Middle East Institute points out, Tehran appears prepared to test Washington's endurance, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasizing a deep distrust of US negotiations following past violations, signaling that a protracted conflict remains the most likely outcome.