Egypt Sees Sharp Decline in Birth Rates as Surging Cost of Living Reshapes Families, CAPMAS Reports

An official report has revealed a significant decline in the average number of children per woman in Egypt, dropping to 2.33 in 2025 compared to 2.85 in 2021—marking an 18.2 percent decrease. Released on Wednesday by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), the report outlines preliminary findings from the 2025 Egyptian Family Health Survey, suggesting that the state's strategic target of achieving a birth rate of 2.1 children per woman is within reach.

Furthermore, the birth rate among adolescent women under the age of 20 fell to 34.6 births per 1,000 women, down from 50 births in 2021, which represents a 31 percent decline.

Mohamed Anis, a member of the Association of Economics and Legislation, noted that the downward trend in birth rates highlights falling fertility rates alongside rising living expenses. He also pointed out that the increased adoption of long-acting family planning methods, such as IUDs and contraceptive implants, has contributed to better service quality and continuity.

Sociology professor Hoda Zakaria observed that lower fertility rates are primarily concentrated among the upper and middle classes, while impoverished communities occasionally view children as a potential source of income. She added that the drop in birth rates may stem from parents wanting to secure better educational and employment prospects for their children, as well as changing attitudes toward marriage driven by financial constraints among youth.

Meanwhile, sociology professor Said Sadek analyzed the declining birth rates through the lens of the "Demographic Transition Theory." He explained that societies typically progress through stages starting with high birth and mortality rates, moving through a phase where mortality drops while birth rates remain elevated, and finally achieving convergence between the two.

Sahar al-Damaty, an economic and banking expert and former Vice Chairman of Banque Misr, stressed that "unlimited childbearing" is entirely out of step with current economic realities. She emphasized that direct financial pressures on family budgets have emerged as the most powerful catalyst for embracing family planning.

Echoing these sentiments, economic expert Rashad Abdo stated that a substantial portion of the population living below the official poverty line has directly impacted marriage rates and the feasibility of establishing new families.