Inside the Trump Campaign Strategy to Reverse Dwindling Republican Midterm Hopes

The midterms mood among Donald Trump’s inner circle has soured as GOP candidates openly break with the president and his approval ratings hit an all-time low. This has prompted a pressing question: How does an unpopular president best help his party keep control of Congress?

Trump advisers have privately acknowledged that there is little expectation he can win over large numbers of independents and swing voters, a group that was critical to his path to victory in key states during 2024. While concerns grow over potentially losing control of the House, Republicans' earlier confidence in holding the Senate is also dwindling rapidly.

“It’s obviously going to be f***ing rough,” one Trump adviser told CNN, noting that the best-case scenario might mirror what Democrats achieved in 2022 under former President Joe Biden, when they narrowly lost the House but retained the Senate.

Despite these headwinds, Trump’s team is organizing an aggressive campaign schedule for October featuring both Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance across battleground and deep-red states. Advisers believe their best chance at holding ground lies in maximizing voter turnout, an area where the president can still make an impact.

“The system is built around what areas we need to goose turnout 2-3 points,” an operative told CNN. Senior advisers, including chief of staff Susie Wiles, have mapped out a calendar keeping Trump on the campaign trail nearly every day in October, with trips planned to Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio.

Beyond driving turnout, the campaign hopes the appearances will help raise funds as Republican groups, such as Trump’s MAGA Inc. PAC, experience a cash crunch. Financial strains are evident as organizations like the Senate Leadership Fund ramp up spending in historically safe states like Texas to support GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton.

At the same time, Republican candidates in various districts are distancing themselves from Donald Trump on issues including immigration, the economy, and the war with Iran. Figures like Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers and other GOP hopefuls have openly criticized administration policies in campaign advertisements. Nevertheless, a strategist noted that candidates must run their own races, while the campaign leans into utilizing Trump’s ability to drive base turnout.

To support these efforts, Vice President JD Vance has been deployed as a key surrogate and fundraiser, serving as the finance chair for the Republican National Committee. Alongside Vance, members of the Cabinet have also been tracked and ranked by Trump’s political team based on their active campaign involvement in swing districts.