Iran Claims Success in Strait of Hormuz Attacks as Oil Flow Recovers Despite US Blockade

Tehran, Iran – Iran is claiming success in attacking ships, including US Navy vessels, near the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that these strikes have forced Washington to move its warships further away from the Iranian coast. This development follows US media reports revealing that eight US Marines suffered from smoke inhalation and potential traumatic brain injuries on September 14 after being targeted by an Iranian antiship cruise missile in the Strait of Hormuz.

Al Jazeera reached out to US Central Command (CENTCOM) for comment on the reports but received no response. CENTCOM previously stated that US vessels successfully evaded Iranian ballistic missile attacks earlier this month. Officials quoted in reports regarding the injuries to the US Marines noted that the vessel they were on during the attack was not a US Navy ship. The Pentagon had earlier quietly added 29 US sailors and eight Marines to its list of war-wounded, bringing the total since the start of the war on February 28 to 861 service members, with at least 19 recorded deaths.

In recent days, Iranian state-linked media claimed that US warships pulled back earlier this month from their previous line of blockade positions. Previously stationed closer to the Iranian port of Chabahar and the entrance to the Gulf of Oman, the reports stated that these vessels had moved further into the central Arabian Sea to avoid Iranian missiles. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appeared to reference these naval movements in a message published by state media on Monday.

US forces are now refraining from advancing further "because of the painful blows they have suffered at the hands of the valiant fighters and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz," Khamenei said. "Whenever they have taken that risk, they have brought harm upon themselves. And soon the Arabian Sea, too, will empty itself of them."

Meanwhile, the US continues to maintain a naval blockade of Iran's southern ports while rejecting the Islamic Republic’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With Tehran signaling readiness for both defensive and offensive military action, analysts expect controlled escalation, even if a renewed all-out war remains unlikely in the immediate future. Maritime law and security expert Ian Ralby noted that Iran’s authorities are likely to continue targeting ships because the strategy serves Tehran’s aims, drawing parallels to the success of the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.

Ralby, president of the good governance nonprofit Auxilium Worldwide, told Al Jazeera that missile and drone strikes provide weaker military powers with significant strategic advantages to impact global markets. "It is fairly certain, therefore, that whether US personnel are on board or not, attacking ships will continue to be part of Iran’s approach to fighting, not only for its continued existence, but for its strategic regional hegemony," Ralby said.

Despite escalating rhetoric, the US military has managed to increase energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, though the waterway remains far from its pre-war state. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Sunday that nearly 13 million barrels of crude were passing through the strait daily. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated the flow at 15-22 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to approximately 20 million bpd before the war, while claiming that Iran remains unable to export its own oil through the blockade.

Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz were expected to average 7.4 million bpd in September, according to preliminary data released by Kpler. Regional exports, including shipments from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran, rebounded to 12.8 million bpd in September, the highest since the war began. Analysts on the hardline Iranian state television program Be Vaght-e Iran noted that Arab Gulf governments were utilizing shuttle systems and older vessels protected by US forces to move oil out of the region while avoiding high international insurance premiums.

As mediators prepare to facilitate further diplomatic exchanges, Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group, believes Iranian authorities are increasingly prepared to rely on attacks around the Strait of Hormuz if diplomatic efforts fail. However, Azizi cautioned that significant US casualties could trigger a level of escalation that Tehran ultimately seeks to deter.