As Israel Heads to the Polls, Few in Lebanon Expect Political Change or Relief from Conflict

Thick smoke rises above residential structures following an Israeli air attack in the town of Arab Salim, Nabatieh governorate, southern Lebanon, on September 6, 2026. In Nabatieh, a pushcart used by Hadi Nasrallah to sell fresh orange juice remains all this Khiam resident has left. His home was destroyed by Israeli bombing, while his village is among the dozens across southern Lebanon currently occupied by Israel.

In a few weeks, Israelis will head to the polls to elect a new government. However, Nasrallah, like others interviewed by Al Jazeera, expects little to change even if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who launched the war on Lebanon in 2023—is defeated in the October general election. Nasrallah noted that Israel has territorial ambitions tied to the concept of Greater Israel, leading him to believe that whoever wins the election will maintain destructive military policies and keep forces in southern Lebanon.

Israel has long been viewed as an enemy in southern Lebanon, but clashes between the Israeli military and Hezbollah have escalated into an intense war over the past three years under Netanyahu's leadership. Although the Israeli military states its operations are directed solely against Hezbollah, attacks have impacted civilian areas, resulting in at least 8,920 deaths and 30,595 injuries since October 2023. Nearly 6 percent of Lebanese territory near the border remains under occupation.

While Netanyahu fights for political survival, his main political challenger, Gadi Eisenkot—head of the Yashar party and former army chief of staff—also projects an image as a security hawk. Eisenkot is known in Lebanon for formulating the Dahiyeh Doctrine during the 2006 war, which advocates for massive force against civilian infrastructure as a deterrent. Like Netanyahu, Eisenkot insists on freedom of action for the military, though he has criticized Netanyahu for halting operations in Beirut and running the war without clear political goals. Despite differing methods, both leaders share the same stated goals: a demilitarized southern Lebanon, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and security for northern Israel.

Across the border in southern Syria, residents are similarly concerned about Israeli military expansion into hundreds of square kilometres of Syrian land, with current leadership indicating no plans to leave. Eisenkot also appears inclined to use the occupation as leverage against the new Syrian government. This has heightened anxiety on both sides of the border that the elections could worsen the situation. Ali Jarmak, a resident of Nabatieh, suggested that focus should remain on events leading up to the election rather than the leadership outcome, warning that Netanyahu might escalate the conflict to secure more votes.

Netanyahu has already delayed diplomatic efforts with the Lebanese government, with negotiations stalled since early August, and Israel continues to refuse further withdrawals until Hezbollah fully disarms. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam faces pressure to extend state authority and implement framework agreements under a clear timetable, though these calls have yielded no results as the Israeli military discusses a new phase in operations.