Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan Maintains Advantage in Race for UN Chief After Fourth Straw Poll

The UN Security Council conducted a fourth secret straw poll on Tuesday to determine the next Secretary General. Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan maintained her position in the lead, though she remains without a clear consensus.

UN diplomats informed The National that Ms Grynspan secured the latest ballot with 10 "encourage" votes, three "discourage" votes, and two "no opinion" votes. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Argentina's Rafael Grossi followed closely, each garnering eight “encourage” votes.

Ms Rodrigues-Birkett recorded six “discourage” votes and one “no opinion” vote. Meanwhile, Mr Grossi, who serves as the director general of the UN nuclear watchdog, obtained seven “discourage” votes alongside zero “no opinion” votes.

Across four rounds of secret ballots, the race has yet to establish an obvious frontrunner to succeed Antonio Guterres. Ms Grynspan, a former Costa Rican vice president leading the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) since 2021, entered Tuesday's proceedings with a slim advantage after topping the previous round.

A definitive obstacle will only emerge later in the process through colour-coded ballots, which reveal if a candidate faces opposition from a permanent Security Council member.

Daniel Safran-Hon, a non-resident senior adviser at the International Peace Institute, noted that the recent outcome reinforces the argument for Council members to transition to colour-coded ballots. Furthermore, he dismissed theories regarding a potential dark horse candidate entering the contest to alter the dynamic.

“I think there’s a bit of a myth of the dark horse, because the fact is that no one is joining the race,” he told The National. “There are so many rumours about people who might join, but no one is doing it.”

A late entry proves challenging, he explained, referencing Bulgaria's Kristalina Georgieva, who entered the 2016 contest late but could not surpass Antonio Guterres.

According to Mr Safran-Hon, Ms Grynspan has already surpassed the nine-vote threshold required for the Security Council to propose a candidate. The central issue is whether any of her three "discourage" votes originated from a permanent member capable of vetoing her nomination.

He mentioned that public signs of a permanent member actively blocking Ms Grynspan remain scarce, although her 10 "encourage" votes do not equate to a decisive advantage.

Minh-Thu Pham, co-founder of the Starling Institute and former advisor to Secretary General Kofi Annan, told The National that Ms Rodrigues-Birkett encounters opposition from Washington regarding her ties to China and her stances on Gaza. Additionally, Mr Grossi faces resistance from Russia alongside remarks on the Falkland Islands made by Argentine President Javier Milei, which Britain would find difficult to disregard, according to Ms Pham.

“I think if a candidate gets through right now in this difficult environment, it means that they have what it takes,” she stated.

The appointment holds notable weight this year, as the UN has never been headed by a woman throughout its 81-year history, with several female candidates presently contesting the role.

Ms Pham argued that the global organization does not strictly require a high-profile political figure for its next leader, suggesting that a candidate with a technocratic background might prove more inclined to challenge governments and take risks.

“I think you need a Secretary General who is not, at the outset, a rock star,” she remarked, pointing to current UN chief Antonio Guterres, a former Portuguese prime minister whose political background yielded mixed leadership results.

“I think he was a bit more hesitant to step into the role of upsetting governments when he maybe needed to, when push came to shove,” Ms Pham stated. Conversely, she indicated that a less political individual might readily accept the criticism inherent to the position.

"Somebody who was a technical bureaucrat before knows that maybe their role is, as Kofi Annan used to say, not SG meaning Secretary General, but SG meaning scapegoat, and that you don't have that ego there.">