US Shale Executives Warn Iran Conflict Creates Severe Long-Term Planning Hurdles

US shale executives are growing increasingly frustrated by the Iran war's disruptive effects on oil markets, which are severely interfering with their ability to plan for the future. According to a quarterly survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, anonymous comments from oil executives highlighted mounting concerns over how the war is driving market volatility.

“We are getting to the point in this global conflict and its effect on commodity markets that it is tough to predict what the remainder of 2026 and also 2027 will potentially look like,” one respondent stated in the survey.

The survey, closely monitored by the energy industry, encompasses Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico, covering key geological areas such as the Permian Basin. Conducted between September 16 and 24, the survey revealed that respondents anticipated the price of West Texas Intermediate crude to settle at an average of $88 a barrel by the end of this year, with individual responses ranging from $70 to $126 a barrel.

Meanwhile, WTI crude prices rose $1.27 on Wednesday to reach $90.65 a barrel amid stalled talks to end the Iran conflict. WTI crude has climbed by approximately 35 per cent since the conflict began on February 28. Survey participants also projected a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.29 per million British thermal units by the end of 2026.

“There is still too much chaos but it is leading to a bullish oil price sentiment because of all of the ramifications of what has taken place in the Middle East,” another respondent noted. A third executive emphasized the extreme nature of the market environment, stating, “Pricing volatility is near an all-time high given the backdrop of Iran. Swings of $5, $10 and $20 up or down are common. It is very challenging to select a planning price or budgeting price.”

Participants also voiced growing frustrations directed at US President Donald Trump and his administration. One respondent remarked that their oil price crystal ball broke when the administration first hit Iran, while another claimed that decisions by the executive branch of the federal government appeared primarily driven by concerns over midterm election results.

In total, the survey gathered responses from 125 energy companies, comprising 83 exploration and production firms alongside 42 oilfield service companies.