Recent Turmoil in Libya Highlights the Fragility of the Country's Uneasy Status Quo

Libya has spent years learning how to live with division. Since the ceasefire that halted the country’s last major round of fighting in 2020, after military commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar launched an offensive to capture Tripoli, the absence of nationwide war has created an impression of relative calm. However, rival authorities have continued to compete for power, armed groups have retained enormous influence, and the country's institutions remain divided, even though the political system largely managed to contain those tensions without returning to full-scale conflict.

The events of the past week were a reminder of how precarious that equilibrium is. A series of drone attacks struck strategic energy infrastructure in Zawiya in western Libya, setting fire to fuel storage facilities and destroying a power substation. The National Oil Corporation warned that continued attacks could force it to declare a force majeure. A strike on the South Zawiya substation left more than 700 megawatts of generation capacity unavailable, while US company GE withdrew technical personnel because of security concerns.

At almost the same time, Maj Gen Fawzi Al Mansouri, the head of military intelligence in eastern Libya, was killed in a car bombing in Benghazi. No group has claimed responsibility, and there is no evidence that the assassination is connected to the attacks in Zawiya. Then came another shock on the institutional front. Central bank governor Naji Issa submitted his resignation to Libya's rival legislative bodies. Mr Issa told Al Jazeera that authorities did not accept his resignation. His appointment in 2024 had been part of an agreement intended to resolve one of the country's most dangerous institutional disputes. Confrontation over control of the bank had contributed to an oil shutdown when eastern authorities halted production and exports.

These developments may ultimately prove to have little or nothing to do with one another. But that is precisely what makes them significant. “When the political landscape is in flux, as has been the case in Libya in recent months, armed groups tend to mobilise and take actions they believe could strengthen their position, obstruct emerging political shifts or shape their direction,” an analyst with Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (Acled), a US-based global war monitor, told The National on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

Zawiya contains some of the country’s most important energy infrastructure, including its largest operating refinery and critical electricity facilities. That makes the city’s security inseparable from the country’s economic security. Renewed violence there has disrupted Opec member Libya's oil industry and risks undermining the oil and gas sector's gradual recovery, particularly by eroding foreign investor confidence.

“The issue is that Zawiya is dominated by rival armed groups, and that has been the case for the past 15 years,” said Othman Ben Sassi, a political analyst who was a member of Libya’s now disbanded post-2011 National Transitional Council. The militias are tied to Libya's western security institutions but operate with considerable autonomy. Acled has recorded more than 30 armed clashes in Zawiya this year, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of all such incidents in Libya. Most were short-lived and localised, however, making the violence over the past week different in scale.

The country had already been grappling with an electricity crisis that sparked unrest in the capital, Tripoli, and demonstrations against Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who governs western Libya. Last month, protesters cut gas flows to power plants and caused an important field to temporarily halt output, piling further pressure on his administration.

Meanwhile, the US has been intensifying efforts to advance a long-discussed framework to unify Libya's competing camps. It is the latest attempt to end political fragmentation and rebuild state institutions since the 2011 uprising that toppled long-time ruler Muammar Qaddafi. A deal would also open the door for US economic interests. Field Marshal Haftar gradually consolidated control over much of the country's east, while the Tripoli-based UN-recognised Government of National Unity, led by Mr Dbeibah, remains the dominant authority in the west. US President Donald Trump's initiative is being led by his senior adviser for Arab and African affairs, Massad Boulos, who has spearheaded diplomatic engagement with figures across Libya's political spectrum.

A US State Department spokesperson told The National that the attacks on Zawiya and the killing of Maj Gen Al Mansouri “underscore the need for unified, professional military and security institutions that are capable of providing security for the Libyan people”. In June, Lt Gen Saddam Haftar, the deputy commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and son of Field Marshal Haftar, met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington to discuss potential power-sharing formulas.