Russia Faces Record Casualties and Attacks Energy Infrastructure Amid Intense Fighting in Ukraine

Russia suffered its highest losses of 2026 in September, with 46,230 soldiers killed or wounded, according to the Ukrainian military. This record follows monthly casualties of about 40,000 since June, coming close to the target set by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January of 50,000 Russian casualties a month. On September 28, Russia reportedly lost 2,090 troops, marking its highest 24-hour casualty rate of the war. While Al Jazeera cannot verify casualty claims from either side, Ukraine states it has video evidence for each casualty, noting that over 90 percent are caused by first-person view (FPV) drones.

Despite these setbacks, Russia continues efforts to seize remaining areas of the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk that it does not control, where casualties have been heaviest. Ukraine’s Third Army Corps inflicted significant losses near Lyman, where the third phase of a counteroffensive named Operation Vivaldi reclaimed 176sq km (68sq miles) of territory recently. Corps commander Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky explained that success came from feigning an attack from the west, forcing the Russian army to deplete its reserves in counterattacks, before striking from the north. Tactics included deploying remotely operated Russian armored personnel carriers packed with explosives into Russian defenses. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone operators disrupted Russian ammunition and fuel supplies.

Russia denied the counteroffensive gains and posted videos as purported evidence. However, assessments by the Institute for the Study of War and DeepState, which track territorial gains using open-source geolocated footage, rarely align with Russian claims. The ISW estimated Russia’s net gains this year at 148sq km (57sq miles), far below the 5,300sq km claimed by Moscow.

Simultaneously, Russia targeted Ukrainian cities over the past week, striking energy infrastructure along with residential buildings, kindergartens, schools, and office buildings. On September 28, a drone strike destroyed part of the National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv, killing several people. Power outages occurred in Kyiv on September 30 after Russian drones hit a thermal power plant in the region, causing at least five deaths nationwide. Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi noted on social media that such a massive and combined attack had not occurred since the end of the previous heating season. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly warned that Russia aims to cripple Ukraine’s energy sector to cause widespread suffering during the winter. On September 30, Russia tested a drone featuring a cumulative cutting warhead intended to destroy high-voltage pylons, according to Ukraine’s defence ministry electronics adviser Serhii Beskrestnov. Russia has also focused on data centres in September to disrupt connectivity and digital commerce.

Ukraine faces a shortage of interceptors to stop ballistic missiles, several of which penetrated defenses on September 30, according to Zelenskyy. Although President Donald Trump initially agreed at the NATO summit in July to let Ukraine manufacture Patriot system interceptors under license, he later retracted the offer. Jet-powered drones have introduced further challenges. While Ukraine previously intercepted over 90 percent of propeller-powered drones, it downed only 81 percent of the 1,933 long-range aerial drones launched by Russia during the week ending October 1 due to the inclusion of jet-powered models. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine's interception rate for jet-powered Shaheds now stands at 55 percent. Beskrestnov added that Russia is developing a radio beacon guidance system to enable accurate attacks deeper within Ukrainian territory, while Zelenskyy reported that Russia plans to spend $12bn on jet-powered drones and loitering munitions next year.

In response, Ukraine launched deep strikes against Russian refineries, targeting the Perm and Novoshakhtinsk refineries on September 25, the Ilsky refinery the following day, and four oil deposits in the Krasnodar Krai region two days later. Ukraine also attacked defense manufacturing facilities, including the NPP Zavod Iskra factory producing electronic components for Kh-59 cruise missiles and Pantsir-S air defense systems, the Efremovsky Synthetic Rubber Plant making solid rocket fuel for Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant producing optics for artillery, missile, and antitank weapons.

Both nations have exceeded their annual defense budgets. Ukraine seeks an additional $27bn, discussing immediate advance payments for supplies with the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund, as explained by Prime Minister Koretskyi. Russia has similarly increased its war spending by 30 percent in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year, according to the Ukraine Foreign Intelligence Service, with leaked documents indicating plans to raise defense spending by another 27 percent next year to an estimated $204bn through borrowing and budget cuts.