Diplomatic Tensions Surge as Ethiopia and Eritrea Cut Ties Amid Fears of a Wider Regional War

A view of Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa. An explosion was reported at the Defence Ministry in the city early on Thursday [Brian Inganga/AP Photo]

Eritrea has officially severed diplomatic ties with neighbouring Ethiopia, sharply escalating a long-simmering conflict driven by territorial disputes and mutual accusations of interference. This decisive move coincides with intensifying clashes in northern Ethiopia between federal troops and an opposition alliance that Addis Ababa claims is backed by Eritrea. These battles represent the most severe violence in the country since the devastating 2020-2022 civil war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. Analysts warn that the current escalation could create ripple effects, potentially igniting broader unrest throughout a region already burdened by intertwined conflicts.

Why did Eritrea break off ties with Ethiopia? Eritrea announced the severance of relations on Thursday following Addis Ababa's declaration that it would close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats. In an official statement, Eritrea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Ethiopia's actions left them with no alternative but to reciprocate and cut all diplomatic connections. The Eritrean ministry blamed Ethiopia for pursuing a multi-year agenda of relentless hostility, which allegedly includes infringing upon its coastal territories and arming groups opposed to the administration in Ethiopia. Conversely, Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting anti-government armed factions, with both nations rejecting each other's claims.

This diplomatic rupture follows months of deteriorating relations, largely fueled by landlocked Ethiopia's strategic push for Red Sea access and allegations that Eritrea is supporting the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF leads the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition currently fighting for control over regions in northern Ethiopia.

Have Ethiopia’s ties with Egypt and Sudan been hit, too? Yes. Ethiopia has accused both Egypt and Sudan of aligning with Eritrea to support Tigrayan rebel fighters, further straining its already fragile relationships with those governments. Long-standing tensions persist between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, which Cairo considers a direct threat to its national water security and share of the Nile. Diplomatic expulsions have also occurred between Addis Ababa and Cairo, with Egyptian state-linked media reporting that Egypt ordered an Ethiopian diplomat to leave on Thursday following a similar expulsion initiated by Ethiopia earlier.

The current conflict also significantly impacts Sudan, whose military-backed government accuses Ethiopia of harboring and equipping rebel factions involved in the Sudanese civil conflict. Ethiopia strongly denies these allegations. Ahmed Soliman, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank’s Africa programme, noted that the conflicts in Ethiopia and Sudan have grown increasingly interconnected, while Egypt has been drawn into the escalation due to its historical rivalry with Ethiopia over the Nile.

What is happening in northern Ethiopia? Tigrayan-led rebel forces have been engaged in active combat against government-backed troops across the northern regions of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar since last week. Al Jazeera’s bureau chief in Ethiopia, Mohammed Taha Tawakel, reported that federal forces have achieved notable territorial gains in the Tigray region, securing multiple towns and advancing toward the regional capital of Mekelle. Further east in Afar, a pro-government armed group claimed control of the town of Erebti on Thursday after rebel forces had briefly occupied it earlier in the week, expressing gratitude to the Ethiopian military for critical air support.

Despite these pro-government advances, Tawakel highlighted that rebel units maintain a strong logistical connection with Eritrea along the shared border. Concerns are mounting that the fighting could soon reach major urban centers in Tigray, including Adwa, Axum, Shire, and Mekelle, prompting residents to flee toward Amhara and Afar.

Outside of northern combat zones, the violence appeared to reach Addis Ababa early on Thursday via an explosion at the Ministry of Defence. AFP cited a diplomatic source suggesting small drones were likely responsible for the blast. While the national army possesses a superior drone inventory, conflict monitor ACLED notes that rebel forces have previously deployed drones against airbases and airports across the nation.

What are the roots of the Ethiopia-Eritrea dispute? Historical relations between the two neighbours have consistently remained fragile. Following Ethiopia's annexation of Eritrea in 1962, an armed independence movement led by Eritrea’s current President Isaias Afwerki ultimately achieved independence in 1993. A subsequent border war occurred between 1998 and 2000. Although Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sought to normalize ties upon taking power in 2018 and even received Eritrean backing during the 2020-2022 civil war, analysts indicate that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's recent ambitions to secure direct sea access for landlocked Ethiopia have reignited severe tensions, with officials in Asmara interpreting such statements as a territorial threat.

Could the current conflict spread in the region? Numerous experts express deep concern over this possibility. Laura Hammond, a professor in development studies at SOAS University of London, noted that such a spread is already unfolding through Eritrea's support for the TPLF and the Alliance for Survival. She warned of a strong likelihood that Eritrea could increase its direct ground involvement inside Tigray and that the conflict might further inflame stability within and alongside Sudan. Similarly, Horn of Africa specialist Martin Plaut cautioned that a genuine danger exists for the conflict to expand rapidly and engulf Ethiopia, Eritrea, and neighbouring Sudan from a single spark.