Latvia Heads to the Polls Amid Rising Security Concerns and Economic Pressures

Polls have officially opened in Latvia for a crucial general election taking place against the backdrop of perceived security threats from Russia and a nationwide cost-of-living squeeze. Saturday’s vote marks the first electoral test for Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs since he assumed power in May following the resignation of his predecessor, which was triggered by a backlash over stray drone incursions from Ukraine.

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and his right-wing United List party are currently polling at approximately 20 percent and are expected to retain their position. However, the decline of two key allies in his current coalition suggests that the Prime Minister faces complex negotiations regarding the formation of any future government. Voting commenced at 05:00 GMT and is scheduled to conclude at 17:00 GMT, though the election results are not anticipated to alter Latvia’s staunchly pro-European and pro-Ukraine trajectory.

Approximately 1.5 million citizens are eligible to participate in the country’s 11th parliamentary election since regaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Latvian politics remain heavily fragmented, as political parties rarely secure more than 20 percent of the vote share, making coalition governments the standard practice. This year, 14 electoral lists are competing in the election, though current polls suggest that only seven parties will surpass the 5 percent threshold required to enter parliament.

Throughout the campaign, debates have focused heavily on rising living costs, low wages, severe strains on the healthcare system, and long-term population decline. While the vast majority of political parties maintain a pro-Ukraine stance, the populist Sovereign Power party—which advocates for domestic spending over financial support for Kyiv—is projected to become the nation's second-largest party with over 9 percent of the vote. Most mainstream parties have already ruled out entering a coalition with Sovereign Power.

Meanwhile, Latvia First, a pro-Ukraine and populist nationalist party polling at roughly 9 percent, emerges as a potential coalition partner for Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, alongside The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party polling at 6 percent. Ethnic Russians comprise about one in four Latvian citizens, and their voting patterns are shifting from traditional identity-based lines toward pressing economic and social issues. As the poorest of the Baltic states, Latvia has significantly ramped up its defense spending in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, currently allocating nearly 5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense.