Ethiopian Military Advances in Tigray as TPLF Rebels Retreat from Key Areas

Ethiopian military and pro-government forces have successfully recaptured the main airport in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, following more than a week of intense fighting. The renewed conflict between the federal government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its allies has shattered the fragile Pretoria Agreement, a peace deal originally signed in November 2022, raising serious concerns over a potential wider regional escalation in the Horn of Africa.

According to sources familiar with the events and humanitarian workers, Ethiopian troops regained control of Alula Aba Nega Airport, situated approximately 10km (6 miles) east of central Mekelle. The airfield was initially seized by rebel forces when fighting erupted on September 23. Local residents and a journalist confirmed that TPLF militants and leaders have begun abandoning their posts, leaving government offices and police stations without security and sparking fears of looting and lawlessness. Al Jazeera’s bureau chief in Ethiopia, Mohammed Taha Tawakel, reported that federal forces have made significant territorial gains, capturing multiple towns while closing in on Mekelle.

The clashes have spanned multiple fronts across northern Ethiopia, affecting the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions. The Tigray Peace Force, an armed faction aligned with the federal government, previously captured the strategic town of Alamata, which serves as a vital supply hub near the southern border with Amhara. Meanwhile, fighting in the Afar region threatens critical supply routes originating from Djibouti. The conflict has also extended into Amhara around North Wollo, with the military reporting approximately 270 Tigrayan fighters killed and over 200 wounded. The violence further spilled into Addis Ababa with an explosion reported near the Ministry of Defence.

The humanitarian impact has been severe, resulting in at least 52 civilian deaths in northern Ethiopia and a sharp increase in wounded individuals, as noted by Doctors Without Borders (MSF). Amnesty International reported ongoing destruction of civilian infrastructure through shelling and air strikes alongside forced conscription, prompting regional director Tigere Chagutah to urge the African Union’s Peace and Security Council to convene an immediate emergency session.

International analysts warn that the crisis could destabilize the broader region. Eritrea recently cut off diplomatic relations with Ethiopia after accusations from Addis Ababa regarding Asmara's backing of Tigray rebels, a claim that Eritrea has denied. With overlapping conflicts in Sudan and escalating tensions across the Red Sea involving Yemen’s Houthis, experts like SOAS University of London professor Laura Hammond caution that regional spillover risks are actively materializing.