Middle East Crude Exports Rebound Past Pre-War Levels Despite Ongoing Regional Tensions

Ships anchored off the coast of Khasab in Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz, on October 2, 2026 [AFP]. Recent provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler reveals that crude oil exports from the Middle East surpassed pre-war levels on four out of seven days during the final week of September.

Despite these shipping figures, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi stated in a televised interview on Sunday night that only three to four million barrels of oil per day (bpd) are traversing the route, describing the volume as “negligible” compared to previous traffic. Fadavi also asserted that, for the first time, no US vessels are present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, or the northern Indian Ocean, claiming US warships remain “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC attacks.

According to Kpler data, regional crude exports climbed to between 19.5 and 22.5 million bpd on September 24 and from September 27 through September 29. During this timeframe, Iran asserted it successfully targeted ships—including US Navy vessels—near the Strait of Hormuz, claiming these strikes compelled Washington to withdraw its warships further away from the Iranian coast.

Prior to the onset of the US-Israel war on Iran, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026. Kpler metrics indicate that the combined total for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd over the seven-day period ending September 30. By October 1, the seven-day moving average specifically for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd, encompassing transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, terminal exports, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Additionally, the volume of liquefied natural gas cargoes leaving the Strait of Hormuz reached its peak monthly level in September since February. These statistics omit any vessels navigating the strait with their automatic identification system transponders deactivated to evade detection.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has recorded at least one attack daily within the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Furthermore, Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, declared on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until the United States agrees to Tehran’s seven-day plan for reopening the waterway.