Secessionist Parti Quebecois Claims Victory in Quebec Election, Reviving Independence Debate

A supporter of the Parti Québécois cheers as party candidates are elected in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, on October 5, 2026.

The secessionist Parti Quebecois has secured the most seats in Quebec’s election and is set to form the next government in the predominantly French-speaking Canadian province, according to media reports. Monday's election outcome revives the debate over whether the province should leave Canada, putting Prime Minister Mark Carney’s message of national unity to the test.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the leader of the party, is positioned to become premier. Throughout the campaign, he pledged to hold a third referendum on leaving Canada within his first term, though he noted he would wait until US President Donald Trump leaves office in January 2029.

It remains uncertain whether the party has secured the 64 seats required for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. Fall short of that threshold, and it would form a minority government, relying on support from opposition lawmakers to pass major legislation and survive confidence votes.

The Parti Quebecois, also known as the PQ, last governed the province between 2012 and 2014. Monday’s win represents a dramatic rebound for the PQ, which captured only three seats in the 2022 provincial election. This triumph also brings an end to eight years in power for the Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ, a centre-right Quebec nationalist party that opposes independence.

Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, explained to The Associated Press news agency that the outcome highlights Quebec’s multiparty system—where support is fragmented among multiple parties—rather than a widespread surge in secessionist backing. He noted that support for independence sits at roughly 30 percent, which is low by historical standards.

Even so, Beland pointed out that a secessionist government in Quebec poses a fresh national-unity test for Prime Mark Carney, especially with another independence-focused vote looming in Alberta.

“Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney,” Beland stated.

Quebec previously held two referendums on independence in 1980 and 1995, with voters rejecting secession on both occasions. While the second vote concluded with a very narrow margin, no additional referendums have been held in the three decades since.