On the Frontlines of a Slow-Moving Catastrophe: How Kabul Is Racing Toward 'Day Zero' for Water

Shazia knows what life will be like in a major city that’s run out of water because she’s already living that reality—and it’s unbearable. The 34-year-old lives in the Khair Khana neighborhood of Afghanistan’s capital Kabul with her three children and her husband, who ekes out a living as a street vendor. They have no running water and can’t afford to buy it from the water tankers that often outnumber cars on the city streets. Every day she and her kids must walk to a local mosque and wait in hour-long lines to fill buckets from a hand pump, before heading back with their heavy loads. Her back aches and she hates having to drag her kids out after school, “but we have no choice,” she said.

Kabul is on track to be the first modern city to run out of water, and could do so as soon as 2030, according to a recent report from the nonprofit Prosper Global. But for Shazia, and many other residents across this fast-expanding city, that day is already here. They are on the frontlines of a spiraling urban water crisis that isn’t confined to Kabul. Cities across the world—from Corpus Christi, Texas, to Iran’s capital Tehran—are teetering on the edge of water shortages so severe that residents are bracing for a “day zero,” the point at which taps run dry for large parts of the city. Their crises tend to follow familiar beats: Booming populations colliding with insufficient, underfunded water infrastructure, underscored by a climate crisis driving hotter, drier weather.

Of all the urban areas facing day zero, Kabul’s situation may be starkest. It’s one of the fastest-growing cities, located in one of the most climate-vulnerable countries. Afghanistan has also suffered from decades of conflict, and global aid has all but dried up since the return of Taliban rule in 2021. Kabul is staring down a “human catastrophe,” said Mohd Faizee, a professor at the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health. “We have only a limited window of time.”

On the streets of Kabul, water is a huge topic of conversation, said Mirza Jan, who lives in the city’s Taimani neighborhood. When Jan’s family bought their house in 1990, they could pull up water by hand in a bucket from a shallow well. Over the years, he has had to dig the well down farther and farther as it kept drying up. It’s now more than 700 feet deep, an expensive endeavor only possible because of money sent by his two sons who live in the US. As groundwater shrinks, those like Jan who can afford the upfront cost keep digging deeper; those who can’t rely on expensive tanker water or hand pumps at mosques. None of these options are sustainable.

Kabul should not be water scarce. Sprawled across a wide valley, it is framed by the Hindu Kush Himalaya, where melting snow and glacial ice feed the Kabul River and recharge aquifers. Over the past decade, however, groundwater levels have plummeted nearly 100 feet, according to Prosper Global. Water is now being pumped out far faster than it can be replenished, leaving an estimated shortfall of more than 1.55 billion cubic feet a year. Nearly half the city’s boreholes have dried up.

It’s the result of soaring demand, compounded by the human-caused climate crisis. The country has endured six consecutive years of drought, with snowfall reaching a 25-year last year. When the rain does fall, Kabul’s hard, impermeable surfaces mean the water doesn’t replenish aquifers, but instead sweeps through the city as flash floods. Najibullah Sadid, a Germany-based water and environment researcher with the Afghanistan Water and Environment Professionals Network, prefers the term “water bankruptcy” because residents are running out of a resource that is not recoverable anymore.

Kabul’s population has ballooned from less than 1 million in 2001 to 6 million today, driven by returnees, people fleeing regional tensions, and rural migrants. This unchecked expansion places immense strain on the city. For the last two years, Asadullah Ahmadi has been spending at least 150 Afghanis ($2.35) a day—a big chunk of his income—to get enough dirty water that must be boiled for his family of seven. Many in Kabul are forced to rely on private companies that pump groundwater and sell it back to residents at inflated prices, according to Marianna von Zahn, the former Afghanistan director of programs at Prosper Global.

To add to the dire situation, up to 80% of large parts of the city’s groundwater is contaminated by sewage and naturally occurring substances like arsenic. While plans exist to help alleviate the crisis—such as the Shahtoot Dam funded by India, a Panjshir River pipeline, and wells constructed by the Afghanistan Ministry of Energy and Water—these projects face delays, political hurdles, and a lack of resources under Taliban rule.

For now, residents like Said Agha continue to face impossible choices. “Years ago, we were running away from bombs and rockets in Kabul,” Agha said. “Now we may have to flee because of a lack of water.”