Assessing Turkey's Potential Military Deployment to Saudi Arabia Under the Makkah Defence Pact

Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have committed to ensuring the rapid deployment of military forces and capabilities to support Riyadh against attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. This pledge emerged during an emergency meeting of ministers and military commanders held under the Makkah defence pact, a collective deterrence agreement established in August.

“The pact has now moved much faster than expected from a declaratory collective defence framework to practical military implementation,” Deniz Karakullukcu, a foreign policy adviser at the Turkish parliament, told The National. However, agreeing to send forces does not equate to immediate overnight mobilisation, as Monday's pledges were accompanied by a commitment to respect each nation's domestic legislation.

As a NATO member, Turkey is also expected to seek limitations on its involvement and remains cautious about committing large troop numbers to external conflicts, analysts informed The National. “I would describe this as the first real test and operationalisation of the pact but not as Turkey automatically entering the war,” Mr. Karakullukcu noted.

In Turkey, the parliament must approve the pact before President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can ratify it. Observers anticipate this approval will proceed quickly following the reopening of parliament, though no strict timeline has been confirmed. “I expect this issue to come on the parliament's agenda in the coming period,” Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus told reporters in Ankara in late September.

Regarding troop deployments, Turkey's constitution dictates that parliament must generally approve such actions, similar to the deployment of Turkish soldiers to Libya in 2020. An exception applies if an international treaty ratified by Turkey mandates troop contributions. Because the full text of the Makkah defence pact remains unpublished, Turkey's precise obligations under the agreement are not yet definitive.

Once parliament approves the pact, if it establishes a sufficient legal foundation for troop deployment, separate parliamentary authorisation may be unnecessary. Armed with authority over the armed forces, Mr. Erdogan would then make the final determination regarding troop movements.

Ankara can already provide limited technical and military support prior to formal ratification through bilateral agreements established with Saudi Arabia since the 2010s. Even after the pact takes full effect, analysts believe Turkey is more likely to supply advisory support, border defences, air and missile defence systems, and intelligence-sharing rather than launching a large-scale cross-border operation in Yemen.

“If you are asking whether Turkey is sending troops to Yemen, I say no. I am not expecting this,” Hasan Selim Ozertem, research director at Ankara-based Ussal Consultancy, told The National. “But Turkey can send troops to Saudi Arabia for its territorial defence against the threat coming from the Houthis. It's a defence pact at the end of the day. It's not an offensive pact.”

Providing high-tech equipment such as drones, electronic warfare systems, and military advisers has previously shifted dynamics in conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Azerbaijan in favor of Ankara's allies, Mr. Ozertem noted.

At the same time, Turkey remains cautious about deepening its involvement in Yemen due to its diplomatic and economic ties with Iran, which supports the Houthis. Murat Yesiltas, foreign policy director at the Seta think tank, stated that this places Turkey in a delicate position, requiring an approach of measured solidarity that emphasizes defensive contributions while retaining control over offensive operations.

Reflecting this careful balance, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized during the Riyadh meeting that discussions covered both defensive support for Saudi Arabia and pathways toward a peaceful resolution through dialogue.