How Russian Fuel Shortages and Ukrainian Strikes Are Opening Doors for Iranian Oil in Central Asia

Countries in Central Asia have begun buying oil from Iran as the Russian fuel supplies they have long depended on run dry amid Ukraine’s mounting attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to degrade Moscow’s war effort. In August, Tajikistan announced it was receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran as Dushanbe faces uncertainty over its fuel supply from Russia. Tehran also agreed to establish a joint refinery in Kyrgyzstan in August, and supply the country with crude oil.

Moscow has been facing fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries as Russia’s war on its neighbour continues to rage. Tajikistan has traditionally sourced up to 80 percent of its petroleum products from Russia, while Kyrgyzstan relies on petroleum product imports, sourcing more than 90 percent of its petrol from Russia. Experts note that these nations have been hurt the most by the disruption.

Russia has been facing a severe fuel deficit as Kyiv’s drone strikes have knocked out an estimated quarter to half of its total oil refining capacity. To tackle the problem, Russia has imposed fuel rationing, banned petrol and jet fuel exports, and is now weighing a ban on diesel exports. Amid these Russian fuel shortages, Central Asian countries like Tajikistan have begun striking deals with Iran, expecting to receive 2.55 million tonnes of oil and petroleum products. Additionally, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian welcomed a proposal from Kyrgyzstan in August to establish a joint refinery.

However, analysts suggest that trading oil with Iran may not be logistically sustainable for Central Asia in the long term, as it depends on whether Ukraine continues to hit Russian refineries. Furthermore, Central Asian nations could face Washington’s secondary sanctions on Iran, though experts believe political factors make direct US sanctions on Central Asian governments unlikely.