US Claims Iran Has Lost Control of Strait of Hormuz as Oil Flows Recover

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Wednesday that Iran had “lost complete control” of the Strait of Hormuz, noting that oil flows through the critical waterway had rebounded to near prewar levels. Speaking at a press conference in Athens, Mr Rubio declared that the Strait of Hormuz is open and that crude volumes are nearly matching figures from before the conflict. He asserted that Iran is facing “crippling sanctions” and that its economy is in “total and complete free fall,” predicting unprecedented hardship for the nation.

Data from ship-tracking firm Kpler indicated that the seven-day moving average for crude exports from the Gulf reached 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, compared to 18 million bpd during the 12 months preceding the Iran war. These figures encompass shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and alternative methods. Mr Rubio criticized Iran’s leadership for allocating state funds to Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis instead of domestic infrastructure and public welfare.

In contrast, Brig Gen Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the IRGC commander-in-chief, insisted that the strait remains closed and that Iranian armed forces maintain “full control” over the passage until Tehran’s demands are met. He claimed that transit routes deemed illegal by Iran, including the southern route near Oman’s coast used by small smuggling boats, would soon be shut down.

Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance emphasized that Iran must make a “meaningful” reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity to end the seven-month war. Speaking to Reuters, Mr Vance questioned the necessity of 60 per cent enriched fuel and stated that Washington would demand concrete actions rather than verbal assurances. Additionally, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva noted in Singapore that while the energy-price shock has been significant, it remains contained, though high prices may persist.

Middle East oil producers are actively establishing alternative export routes, with the UAE fast-tracking its West-East Pipeline to expand capacity through Fujairah by 2027, and Saudi Arabia rerouting crude through its East-West Pipeline. Tom Baker, managing director for Vitol in Bahrain, reported at an industry forum in Fujairah that Middle East refining capacity is recovering rapidly. Although proposals have been exchanged between Iran and the US, President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's latest offer, with Mr Vance confirming that Washington remains open to a deal conditioned on tangible concessions.