Why Massive Destruction and Casualties Fail to Guarantee Victory for Israel in Gaza

Three years have passed since Hamas’s attack shook Israel and triggered the ongoing genocidal war, shattering the image of the Israeli army as an invincible force. In response, Israel mobilized all its military power—short of nuclear weapons—and its Western allies to launch an unprecedented campaign of death and destruction across the Gaza Strip. Rather than solely targeting military positions and fighters of the Islamic resistance, the Israeli army set out to punish the civilian population through massacres and widespread devastation. By now, the conflict has killed more than 74,000 and injured over 180,000 people, starved the entire population, destroyed the healthcare and education systems, and wiped out vital life-sustaining infrastructure, including water treatment plants and the electricity grid.

If the true measure of military success is achieving political objectives and ending a conflict on desired terms, Israel appears unable to translate its military superiority into a political reality matching its stated goals. From the beginning, the government aimed to free the captives, eliminate the Palestinian resistance, establish security control over the Gaza Strip, and set up an alternative administration, all while laying the groundwork for the eventual expulsion of Palestinians.

Reviewing what has been achieved so far reveals significant shortcomings. Regarding the captives, of the 250 taken to Gaza, the Israeli army managed to free just eight and recover 12 bodies, while shooting dead at least three and killing an unknown number during operations. The vast majority of captives were ultimately released through intense diplomacy and negotiations with Hamas. Furthermore, Israel has been unable to end the presence of the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip despite extensive military operations and leadership assassinations. Hamas maintains control over parts of the Strip, forcing Israel to negotiate its disarmament rather than achieve it by force.

While the Israeli army has occupied 60 percent of the Gaza Strip, it stopped short of a massive operation to seize the remaining territory due to the high political, humanitarian, and military costs. Meanwhile, efforts by Israel and the United States to create the Board of Peace and alternative administrative plans excluding the UN have largely failed. Plans to expel Palestinians have also stalled; despite widespread displacement, starvation, and destruction making the Strip unlivable, the majority of the population remains, and some have even returned from Egypt.

Ultimately, Israel faces a severe “day after” problem. While its military can raze the territory, it cannot build a new political reality or extinguish the Palestinian cause. This approach has severely damaged Israel's international standing, evidenced by walkouts during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s UN General Assembly speech, an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, and growing global disapproval reflected in Pew Research surveys across 36 countries, alongside shifting political debates in Washington and European capitals.