Horn of Africa Crisis Deepens as Ethiopia and Eritrea Trade Mutual Invasion Accusations

Members of the Ethiopian Federal Police patrol after Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces retreat in Mekelle, Tigray this week. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of executing an "all-out invasion" in an official message directed to the United Nations Security Council, while Eritrea counters that it is currently facing a severe "war of aggression" instigated by its neighbour.

"The all-out invasion of parts of northern Ethiopia by Eritrea is a matter of public record," stated a formal letter authored by Ethiopia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Gedion Timothewos, which was distributed to news agencies on Friday. Addressed to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot and dated Thursday, the letter added, "It is a blatant act of aggression that engages Ethiopia’s inherent right to self-defence." Gedion claimed that Eritrean troops have advanced as far as 60 kilometres (37 miles) deep into Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, demanding their immediate withdrawal following the recent collapse of diplomatic relations between the two nations.

Conversely, Eritrea’s Minister of Information Yemane Gebremeskel firmly rejected Ethiopia’s assertions. Speaking on X, Yemane stated, "The Ethiopian regime has been pursuing, in effect, an unprovoked war of aggression against Eritrea for more than three years now." He argued that Asmara has consistently exercised restraint since landlocked Ethiopia declared its intention to secure sea access in 2023, which Asmara viewed as an effective declaration of war. Referencing statements made by Ethiopian officials, Yemane accused Addis Ababa of leveraging the ongoing conflict to capture Assab, an Eritrean port, in order to restore its access to the Red Sea. Furthermore, Eritrea denied allegations from Ethiopia claiming that Asmara is providing backing to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a component of a seven-member armed alliance attempting to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government since September.

Over the past week, the Ethiopian army has successfully repelled the TPLF and secured control of the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle. Eyewitnesses speaking to the AFP news agency confirmed that rebel forces have also lost the Tigrayan cities of Shire and Adigrat. Reports from witnesses indicated that Eritrean troops were spotted in Adigrat prior to targeted Ethiopian drone strikes.

The latest reported incursions by Eritrean troops have reignited fears of a full-scale regional war between nations with a history of conflict. Tensions have escalated significantly due to broader conflicts across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. Diplomatic ties have completely fractured, with Ethiopia closing its embassy in Asmara and expelling 10 Eritrean diplomats last week, prompting Eritrea to officially sever relations in response. The two countries share a volatile past, marked by Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia in 1993 and a destructive two-year border war in 1998. Although relations saw a brief improvement following Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rise to power in 2018—with Eritrea fighting alongside Ethiopia against the TPLF during the 2020–2022 civil war—ties soured after Eritrea was excluded from the subsequent peace agreement. Ongoing tensions continue to be driven by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's persistent claims regarding Ethiopia's right to sea access, which Eritrea interprets as a direct threat to seize the port of Assab.