Unseating Netanyahu: Would an Israeli Opposition Victory Change Anything for Palestinians?

Four rival Israeli political movements have agreed to work together in a bid to unseat Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. The factions—the Yashar party, the Democrats, the Yisrael Beytenu party, and the Together alliance—span different parts of Israel’s political spectrum but say they are united in their goal to preserve and strengthen Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.

The opposition grouping is in a close battle with a pro-Netanyahu coalition heading into the October 27 elections, recent polling indicated, although neither side appeared on track to win a parliamentary majority. The election comes as Israel faces a series of domestic crises that are tearing at its social fabric, including questions over political accountability for alleged corruption and security failures, disputes over ultra-Orthodox military service, and efforts to exclude Arab parties from political life.

The country also faces growing backlash abroad, including from allies, over its continuing attacks on Gaza and Lebanon as well as settlements, which are illegal under international law, and settler pogroms in the occupied West Bank. Analysts said the combination makes the upcoming elections among the most consequential in Israel’s history, but even an opposition victory may bring only marginal change for Palestinians suffering record levels of settler violence and mass displacement.

While the opposition alliance has taken Netanyahu to task personally, there is little daylight between them when it comes to Israel’s foundational policies in Gaza and the West Bank. Analyst Samer Jaber, a doctoral researcher specialising in political economy at Royal Holloway, University of London, noted that Palestinians should not expect a fundamental change in Israeli policy if the Netanyahu bloc loses power, as major political blocs share core positions on the Palestinian question.

The leaders of the four major Jewish-led opposition movements gathered on September 26 and signed a declaration promising not to attack each other in the run-up to the elections and to collaborate in forming a government after the vote. In addition to Yair Lapid, who leads the official opposition in Israel’s Knesset, the meeting included Gadi Eisenkot, who heads the Yashar party; Naftali Bennett, who leads the Together alliance, cofounded by Lapid; Avigdor Lieberman, who heads Yisrael Beiteinu; and Yair Golan, who leads the Democrats.

Of the four opposition parties, Yashar is projected to be the strongest with 23 seats in parliament, followed by the Together alliance with 13 seats, and Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats with nine seats each. That would give the opposition a combined 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, seven short of a majority, while Netanyahu’s alliance is projected to win 49 seats.

Even if the opposition alliance manages to find a way to oust Netanyahu, analysts said it would likely be weak and incapable—or unwilling—to overhaul Israeli policy in the West Bank and Gaza. Political scientist Anders Persson noted that an anti-Netanyahu government would most likely be a very disparate coalition with a very thin majority, making it difficult to agree on substantial concessions.

Most leaders of the anti-Netanyahu alliance have taken hardline positions on Gaza and the West Bank. Yashar’s Eisenkot has called the idea of a Palestinian state delusional and supports strengthening Israeli settlements, while Bennett has described himself as more right-wing than Netanyahu and advocated exceptionally draconian policies in Gaza. Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party also supports settlement expansion and annexing all of Area C of the West Bank, while Golan’s Democrats party supports a form of two-state solution framed as responsible separation.

Nevertheless, some analysts said a new government could roll back or slow down some of the most controversial and radical steps of Israel’s current government, including far-right settlement proponents Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Dov Waxman, a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, stated that changes enacted by a new government would likely include suspending the E1 settlement project and cracking down on extremist settler violence in the West Bank, as well as allowing more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza.