GOP Scrambles to Avert Steep Midterm Losses Amid Growing Concerns Over Trump's Impact

The Republican Party’s midterm campaign has turned into a triage operation just three weeks out from November, as officials race to avert losses in a string of once-safe seats that they increasingly fear could cost them total control of Congress.

The worsening landscape has alarmed GOP operatives across several battleground states, forcing the party to pour resources into traditionally red districts and states at the expense of their once-expansive ambitions in Democratic areas. And after months of pressing President Donald Trump to ramp up his travel on behalf of key candidates, some Republicans now worry he’s grown so unpopular that his presence on the campaign trail may in some cases be doing more harm than good.

One House Republican running for re-election said of the president’s numbers: “Trump is dragging the party down.”

The grim outlook gripping the GOP follows weeks of polling showing Republicans on track to lose the House amid intense voter anger over the Iran war and rising cost of living — and at grave risk of losing their once-solid majority in the Senate as well.

The widening number of competitive races has complicated Republican leaders’ plans to make up ground by unleashing hundreds of millions of dollars down the stretch. Despite a massive cash advantage fueled in part by pro-dollar super PAC, MAGA Inc., the spending so far has failed to significantly shift Republicans’ fortunes as more money gets diverted toward races once counted on as comfortable wins.

Already, the Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP super PAC in Senate races, has suspended its ad reservations in North Carolina and plowed at least $10 million into Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. It also recently invested $5 million in South Carolina to boost incumbent Sen. Darline Graham amid concerns among some Republicans she’s losing ground to Democrat Annie Andrews in the deep red state.

That’s on top of the more than $100 million that the Senate Leadership Fund has spent in Texas to boost Ken Paxton, who is scrambling to shore up GOP support in his race with Democrat James Talarico after a bruising primary campaign. Trump himself has now traveled to Texas three times in one month to rally voters on Paxton’s behalf.

“We were all hoping the war was going to be over now, but it’s not,” said one Trump adviser. “We shouldn’t have a fight in a place like Texas, but obviously we do.”

Top Republicans steering spending on the House side are also expected to narrow their focus in the coming days, doubling down on races they see as winnable while slashing their investment in candidates whose fortunes are fading, multiple people familiar with the matter said.

The Cook Political Report dealt the latest blow on Friday, moving 18 House races toward Democrats. Those contests include five toss-up seats across Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington that the closely watched analysis projects the Democratic candidates are now more likely to win.

The Senate map has also provided little reassurance for the GOP. Paxton is suffering a drip-drip of damaging audio leaks from a private fundraiser, further frustrating Republican officials who already believe he’s running a poor campaign. Democrats hold polling leads in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, while making insurgent runs in solidly red states like Alaska and even Kansas.

“I don’t know that the environment could possibly get worse than it is,” said Jason Roe, a Michigan GOP strategist advising Rep. Tom Barrett, who is in a neck-and-neck race against Democratic challenger Will Lawrence.

Inside the White House, Trump and his top advisers are clear-eyed about the difficult odds of keeping the House and the rising threat to the Senate majority, people familiar with the matter said. But there is still optimism that Republicans can limit their losses and turn the prospect of a blue wave into little more than a ripple.

Speaker Mike Johnson has vowed to do everything he can to hold the majority and is campaigning in more than 40 districts and 20 states leading up to the election. While Trump has largely steered clear of swing districts of late, he has shown newfound enthusiasm for the campaign trail that his advisers have rushed to take advantage of, sending him to favorable areas across the country where they believe he can help GOP turnout.

In a statement, White House spokesman Davis Ingle called Trump “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella and a senior Republican National Committee official also defended the party's positioning against pessimistic outlooks.

Trump’s rallies — which included a stop in Texas and a trip to upstate New York to stump for gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman — have bolstered Trump’s mood and view of Republicans’ chances. Nevertheless, Trump has tacitly acknowledged that his presence may not be helpful everywhere at a time when large majorities are frustrated with his economic policies and oppose the Iran war.

Still, there’s little expectation that any GOP candidate can fully escape the gravitational pull that Trump has exerted on the political landscape since returning to the White House. Trump advisers have counseled Republicans that their best hope in the final weeks is to make their own pitches for why they should get another term in Congress.