Spain's Far-Right Vox Surges as Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez Faces Mounting Political Crises

Madrid, Spain – "What I really hate about [Prime Minister Pedro] Sanchez is how keen he is to allow more migrants into our country," said Alberto Munoz, wearing the red and gold wristband of Vox party supporters. The 24-year-old computer programmer from Barcelona is part of a growing movement of young Spaniards drawn to the far-right, anti-immigration party.

Just eight years ago, Vox was a marginal group on the fringes of Spanish politics. However, recent polls indicate it is moving closer to power as Spain approaches snap elections on November 29. Securing a parliamentary majority requires 176 seats. According to a survey by the centre-left newspaper El Pais, the conservative People’s Party (PP) and Vox—whose projected support has doubled since the 2023 elections—are positioned to capture 198 seats.

A coalition between the PP and Vox would mark the first return of the hard right to power in Spain since the death of Francisco Franco in 1975. In the 2023 elections, the PP secured the most votes but fell short of a majority and did not form a coalition with Vox. Instead, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of the Socialist Workers’ Party formed a government backed by the Catalan nationalist party, Together for Catalonia. Since then, the PP and Vox have established four regional governments together and share power in approximately 100 councils.

“There is hope for Spain with these elections. We will fight for victory and to convince Spaniards we are worth voting for,” Jose Antonio Fuster, national spokesman for Vox, told Al Jazeera. “But the PP cannot make the same mistakes as 2023 and must not start dividing up ministries until we have won.”

Sanchez’s party is projected to win 112 seats in November, down from 121 three years prior. A defeat for the Socialists would eliminate one of the final left-wing administrations in Europe, reflecting broader far-right and populist gains across France, Germany, Italy, Austria, and Finland.

Steven Forti, a far-right expert and contemporary history lecturer at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, noted that Vox, like other populist movements in Europe and Latin America, officially distances itself from the Franco dictatorship. Nonetheless, Vox leader Santiago Abascal once criticized Sanchez's administration in parliament as the "worst for the past 80 years," subtly implying the Franco era was superior.

"It is dog whistle politics—you do not make an explicit reference to the dictatorship. Vox is like other far-right parties in that respect," Forti told Al Jazeera. "Young people are attracted to Vox by a feeling of rebellion against the established parties, nationhood and antimigrant feeling. If the polls are right, they will be in power with the PP, but what matters is what ministries they control. Vox stands out as the only party experiencing substantial growth. A survey for the state broadcaster RTVE projected Vox's parliamentary seats to jump from 33 to 65, while showing stagnant support for the PP and losses across all left-wing factions.

Antonio Alonso, an international relations lecturer at the University CEU San Pablo in Madrid, observed that right-wing factions display greater stability than their fragmented opposition. "What is key is that the far left is split into so many different groups and it will be hard to mobilise them as one front together. Meanwhile, the right with the PP and Vox is more unified," he told Al Jazeera.

Alberto Nunez Feijoo, leader of the opposition and the People's Party, intends to leverage public frustration over corruption scandals surrounding Sanchez. Following the election announcement, Feijoo told reporters, "This is an election between corruption and decency, between decline and prosperity, between a government that aspires only to survive and a country that is thinking about its future," while also promising to construct 200,000 homes annually and reduce taxes.

Prompted by a severe housing crisis that sparked nationwide protests, Sanchez called the snap vote in a high-stakes gamble to revitalize his base. Public outrage intensified following the eviction of 87-year-old Maria del Carmen Abascal from her Madrid apartment of seventy years, which inspired activist encampments in Madrid and other cities. Widely known as Maricarmen, she passed away this month following the protests.

The defeat of two government bills aimed at protecting tenants like Abascal triggered massive demonstrations, prompting Sanchez to capitalize on the public anger by scheduling elections. Observers suggest Sanchez hopes housing issues might overshadow controversies involving his family, criticism over the Ceuta migration crisis, and amnesties for Catalan separatists behind the 2017 independence referendum.

The two previously defeated housing measures were eventually passed by the acting government. "They protect the most vulnerable and, in some way, begin to bring order to what is currently a deeply dysfunctional market that does not operate according to the logic of supply and demand because of rampant speculation," Sanchez told reporters.

Despite Sanchez's reputation as a skilled political tactician, this gamble may prove insufficient. Even prior to the election announcement, the Socialists lagged behind in nearly every opinion poll, with a majority of voters favoring the PP and Vox.