Sudan on Brink of Famine as Conflict and Drought Worsen Food Crisis, Monitors Warn

Conflict and drought are escalating the risk of famine across Sudan’s Darfur and Kordofan regions, according to a global food crisis monitor. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) stated on Monday that an El Nino-induced drought, impacting approximately half of the country, is exacerbating the effects of conflict and displacement. This situation is leading to reduced food availability, increased prices, and a severe impact on livelihoods.

The IPC highlighted that healthcare services are extremely limited and often inaccessible, while clean water is becoming increasingly scarce. This leaves a population suffering from malnutrition highly vulnerable to disease and death. The IPC is an initiative comprising 21 organizations and intergovernmental institutions, including the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the World Bank, the World Food Programme (WFP), and the World Health Organization (WHO), aimed at improving food security.

Farmers' livelihoods have significantly deteriorated, leading to a greater reliance on food assistance. The IPC warned that "food insecurity, acute malnutrition and excess mortality will likely intensify." Poor vegetation growth is affecting nearly two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and about half in South Darfur, West Kordofan, and South Kordofan. Severe water shortages and limited opportunities for agricultural recovery further threaten livelihoods in these areas.

The IPC reported a worsening trend in acute malnutrition in additional regions, including Nyala. Between January and August, the proportion of children admitted for severe acute malnutrition who were accessing nutrition services doubled from around 5% to 11%. Two displacement camps in South Darfur also recorded global acute malnutrition rates above famine thresholds. In North Darfur, delayed rains have impacted crop cultivation and led to "critically low" food stocks, worsening food insecurity. Western Kordofan is experiencing one of its most severe droughts since 2004 due to poor rainfall.

In May, an IPC assessment indicated that nearly 19.5 million people, representing over 40% of the population, were facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Of these, 135,000 were classified in Phase 5, the most critical stage, characterized by extreme food shortages, starvation, very high malnutrition rates, and deaths from disease or acute malnutrition.

Sudan's war began in April 2023 following escalating tensions between the military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which erupted into open conflict in the capital, Khartoum, and subsequently spread nationwide. Conflict monitor ACLED estimates that at least 150,000 people have died, though aid groups suggest the actual figure is likely higher. Approximately 13 million people have been displaced.

The army maintains control over Sudan’s central and eastern regions, while the Darfur region in the west and parts of the south are under the control of the RSF. The arid Darfur region, comparable in size to Spain, has been a focal point of severe violence, with displacement camps being invaded and instances of ethnic cleansing resulting in thousands of deaths.