Iran Escalates Strait of Hormuz Tensions with Surge in Tanker Attacks

Maritime agency reports indicate a significant increase in tanker attacks within and around the Strait of Hormuz, with at least 12 vessels targeted in the past week. This surge coincides with Iran intensifying its campaign to disrupt US-backed oil shipments through the crucial waterway. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency reported six vessels were struck on Sunday, including five tankers and a container ship. Five of these incidents occurred within the strait, while one took place near Oman’s Sohar anchorage. The UKMTO reclassified the Sohar incident as an attack after confirming a drone strike on a tanker, with local authorities assisting in crew evacuation. In a separate event, an outbound tanker sustained damage to its port side but its crew was reported safe.

These incidents follow a consistent rise in attacks, attempted attacks, and harassment of commercial vessels. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Centre attributes this to Iran’s “intent to assert [its] presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels.” This assessment aligns with reports of at least 12 attacks on oil, liquefied natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas tankers in the vicinity of the strait between September 28 and October 5, according to Reuters, citing maritime security sources. The International Maritime Organisation recorded nine vessel-related incidents during the same period, highlighting variations in verification and reporting protocols.

Iran has coupled its pressure on shipping with increasingly direct warnings to vessels navigating the strait. On Saturday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed a crude oil supertanker was hit by a naval mine and caught fire while using an unauthorized route with its navigation systems deactivated. Shipping analyst Sal Mercogliano noted that circulating video of the incident did not appear to show a mine strike, as the vessel was stationary and no underwater explosion was visible. The IRGC issued a warning that any tanker disregarding the strait's security and rules would face similar consequences. Habibollah Sayyari, chief of staff and joint co-ordinator of Iran’s army, reiterated this warning on Sunday, stating, “We have struck blows against enemy vessels. If anything else happens against Iran, we will strike them again.”

Further claims from the IRGC on Monday stated they had struck a supertanker attempting to transit the strait with its transponders switched off, though this incident has not been independently confirmed. Seatrade also reported a separate Iranian claim of a supertanker being hit, which also remains unconfirmed. Earlier this month, a crude tanker was struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The threat has extended beyond the waterway, with a vessel reporting being hit by projectiles approximately 95km north of Madinat Ash Shamal in Qatar, resulting in reported casualties. Another incident involved the Panama-flagged crude carrier Gem No 2 being struck by a drone about 25km west of Al Jazeera in the UAE; the resulting fire was extinguished, and its 22 crew members were reported safe by Indian officials.

These attacks and warnings underscore the diverging perspectives on the waterway’s control. Mohammadreza Naqdi, an adviser to the IRGC's commander, asserted that Iran would close routes it deems illegal, including passages along Oman’s coast, declaring, “The Strait of Hormuz is closed and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it,” as quoted by the Fars news agency. Conversely, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected this assessment last week, stating that commercial oil flows had largely recovered despite Iran's disruption efforts. “The Strait of Hormuz is open. There’s almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began,” he remarked, concluding, “So they’ve lost complete control of the strait.”