Iran Escalates Hormuz Surveillance Amid Soaring Attacks and Plummeting Oil Flows

Iran's military has announced an expansion of its surveillance operations in the Strait of Hormuz, deploying new units to target vessels. This move comes amid a heightened struggle between Tehran and Washington for control of this critical global energy transport waterway. With the United States maintaining a naval blockade on Iran's southern ports and sanctions intensifying, Tehran has reiterated its commitment to pursuing both military and diplomatic avenues to pressure Washington into reopening the strait. This latest announcement from Tehran coincides with a notable increase in attacks within the waterway and a subsequent decline in oil transit, following a period where crude flows had rebounded to pre-war levels in September.

Chris Featherstone, a political scientist at the University of York, commented to Al Jazeera that the escalating attacks and their impact on energy shipments underscore the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz as a vital route for oil exports. The article explores the current situation and the dynamics of control over the Strait of Hormuz.

What has Iran said about expanding its presence in Hormuz?

Iran's Navy reported the deployment of operational units in a new formation situated east of the Strait of Hormuz, extending into the Sea of Oman and the Arabian Sea. This deployment followed the identification of a tanker that had sustained damage and caught fire, according to a report by Press TV. The navy stated that these units are tasked with maintaining real-time surveillance of enemy activities and maritime traffic in the region. Additionally, they issued a warning to vessels to keep their transponders active and to coordinate with Iranian armed forces for safe passage.

Furthermore, an Iranian official informed Reuters that Tehran began employing different offensive tactics against vessels deemed to be in violation of its restrictions approximately ten days prior. This shift in strategy has reportedly led to an increase in attacks on such ships, with the aim of influencing the outcome of the US midterm elections in November, the official added.

Attacks in Hormuz rise to record levels

Vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz have experienced the most severe wave of attacks since the commencement of the US and Israel's war on Iran in late February. Maritime tracking firm Kpler reported that 10 tankers were struck in the strait between September 28 and October 4, with an additional strike occurring on October 5. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre has documented 15 other attacks between October 6 and October 14, with 11 of these incidents occurring within the last four days. These incidents include a container ship and a tanker hit by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to UKMTO.

Iran asserts that its actions and restrictions in the waterway are measures of national security and self-defense in response to the US-Israel war. Iranian authorities have also indicated their intention to disrupt a US-facilitated shuttle system that has been instrumental in increasing energy exports through the strait during the conflict. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) noted in its latest report on Sunday that the threat to merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains severe, ranking as the second-highest level. JMIC reported that attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), attempted attacks, and harassment activities persist, including UAV overflights, targeted surveillance of merchant shipping, and occasional VHF hailing. UAV refers to unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, while VHF hailing involves Iranian forces using standard marine radio to contact, track, and intimidate passing merchant ships on international communication channels.

How have attacks affected oil flows?

Prior to the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically facilitated the passage of approximately 125 large commercial vessels daily, accounting for about 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies. In retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks, Iran has effectively imposed restrictions on the strait and intensified attacks on vessels attempting to bypass its regulations. Concurrently, Washington has maintained a blockade on Iranian ports.

However, in September, oil flows through Hormuz, excluding Iran, recovered to over 81 percent of pre-war levels, with crude exports from the broader Middle East surpassing pre-war levels on 14 days during the month, according to Kpler. An increasing number of oil tankers, escorted by the US Navy, had begun transiting the strait. The Iranian threat necessitated substantial bonuses for ship crews and maintained high insurance rates, with some analysts suggesting that Gulf nations might also have been making payments to Iran to permit tanker transit. This situation led to increased oil exports from the region while crude prices remained elevated.

The recent surge in Iranian attacks, however, has altered this dynamic. Kpler data indicates that only 2.9 million barrels of oil were transported through the waterway on October 11, marking the lowest level for the month. As recently as October 8, nearly 20.8 million barrels of oil passed through the strait. The pre-war average daily transit was 17.1 million barrels.

Oil prices continued to rise on Wednesday morning, with Brent crude futures increasing by 89 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $106.58 a barrel as of 00:30 GMT. Brent futures had closed at $105.69 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate settled at $94.14.

What is the US saying?

A US military official confirmed to Reuters on Wednesday that Iran has significantly altered its tactics in the Strait of Hormuz. The official noted that following the destruction of much of Iran's radar capabilities by Washington, the IRGC has resorted to using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify potential targets, including US naval vessels. US military intelligence suggests that Iranian spotters were operating from dhows, relaying target information to the IRGC. US forces reportedly confronted one such vessel, ordered its occupants to abandon ship, and subsequently destroyed it.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has refuted claims made by the commander of the IRGC that Tehran controls the Strait of Hormuz and intends to sink approaching US warships. CENTCOM stated on X, "IRGC’s navy commander has no navy. American forces and regional partners clearly control the Strait of Hormuz." The military command further added that US forces, in collaboration with regional partners, facilitated the shipment of over 19 million barrels of crude oil through the strategic chokepoint on Monday.

So, who controls Hormuz?

Since Iran effectively restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz after the war began, the US Navy has reportedly established a route enabling Gulf states to export oil and other commodities amidst the energy crisis triggered by Iran's attacks on ships. On Sunday night, Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, alleged that US Central Command, with assistance from the United Arab Emirates military, was utilizing smaller vessels for oil transfers to larger tankers. He declared this US shuttle system a direct target for Tehran, stating that Iran had been striking five to six participating vessels nightly for weeks.

Rezaei asserted, "You are smuggling, but the strait is under Iran’s control, and we manage it." This statement appeared to be a taunt directed at US President Donald Trump, who had previously highlighted energy exports reaching pre-war levels in recent weeks.

Iran has claimed that the US has accepted some of its seven conditions for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and for ending the war, but that Washington's response was deemed "insufficient." Tehran insists that a resolution will only be achieved when all its demands are met.

Chris Featherstone, the political scientist from the University of York, commented, "The Trump administration has not moved to engage with continued negotiations, and hasn’t sought further help from potential interlocutors, such as Qatar and Pakistan." He added, "For Iran, they may be seeing this as a point to increase pressure on the Trump administration." However, Featherstone noted that the strait is not under Iranian control, and Tehran's attacks are merely an attempt to demonstrate that Washington also lacks full control over the waterway. "As such, US allies will increase pressure for the Trump administration to bring more stability to the region, or show a path towards achieving greater stability," he concluded.