Trump's Accidental Climate Presidency? Iran War's Unforeseen Impact on Global Energy

The conflict in Iran, initially anticipated as a swift military action, has evolved into a protracted war that is profoundly reshaping the global energy landscape. As oil and gas prices surge, a peculiar phenomenon is emerging: a noticeable shift towards clean energy, prompting the question of whether President Donald Trump could inadvertently become a global climate advocate. This would represent a significant irony, given Trump's history of climate skepticism, his dismissals of global warming as a "hoax" and clean energy as a "scam," his promotion of fossil fuels, and his rollback of environmental regulations. However, the ongoing war, now in its eighth month, is starkly illustrating the vulnerability of fossil fuels to geopolitical instability. While the situation is complex, with some nations resorting to coal, there are indications of a global push towards cleaner energy sources. Experts suggest that the prolonged conflict could ultimately diminish global demand for oil and gas. Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution, noted, "With all (Trump’s) efforts to encourage fossil fuel use, he might end up accelerating their phase down instead."

The war, initiated by the US and Israel against Iran in February, triggered the most significant oil shock in history. Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas transport, sent oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel. While many analysts predicted a short-lived price spike, it has persisted despite Iran's reduced control over the strait. Increased shipping costs through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with new conflict fronts like Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and tankers, are impacting demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 from an anticipated rise of 930,000 barrels per day in January to a decline of 2.5 million barrels per day due to the "impasse" in US-Iran negotiations. This reduction in oil consumption translates to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon Brief projects a global fossil fuel emission fall of around 0.5% in 2026, the first decrease since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted global activity. This trend significantly affects transportation, the largest consumer of oil. While reduced driving and flying might be temporary, the types of vehicles purchased are undergoing more permanent changes. Global electric vehicle (EV) sales increased by 4% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the IEA, which stated that the Middle East crisis has "clearly reinforced the case for EVs as a way to address energy security and fuel cost concerns."

Regions like Australia, parts of Asia, and Europe have experienced significant EV sales growth, with Europe reaching record highs in 2026, driven by high fuel prices, particularly for diesel, which rose 38% since the war began. Conversely, the US has seen a slump in EV sales, attributed to the Trump administration's reduced support for EVs and restrictions on Chinese models, resulting in a decline of over 30% year-to-date, according to Motor Intelligence. The natural gas market has also faced a "major supply shock," with the IEA forecasting a global demand shrinkage of approximately 0.5% in 2026. Consequently, numerous countries have implemented policies to transition from fossil fuels to clean power. The inherent security of solar and wind power, unlike oil and gas which depend on volatile chokepoints, is becoming increasingly apparent. "The new geopolitics of energy is driving clean energy solutions and electrification," stated Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Global Energy, Climate, and Sustainability Lab at New York University. Investment in solar capacity in Southeast Asian nations, for instance, has quadrupled in the first two quarters of 2026, according to the Rhodium Group, as these countries pivot away from Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas. Tess Carter, an associate director for energy and climate at Rhodium, noted that the region had to "make a quicker pivot."

While a substantial shift away from oil and gas will take time, Gross anticipates it is coming, citing the lengthy processes involved in widespread EV adoption and grid-scale electricity changes. However, a complicating factor is the turn towards coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, by some nations seeking alternatives. Global coal demand is now projected to rise by 1.2% in 2026, reversing earlier forecasts of a slight decline. There's also the possibility of a rebound in oil and gas demand, with the IEA projecting a recovery for oil in 2027. Past global disruptions, like the pandemic, saw a surge in fossil fuel demand after initial hopes for a clean energy shift. The permanence of these current shifts may hinge on the conflict's duration. DNV analysis suggests that each month the war continues increases the probability of permanent oil "demand destruction." Sverre Alvik, vice president and energy transition outlook director at DNV, stated, "If the war lasts for four years, for example, then our analysis shows that oil demand will never resume to the level we had in 2025."

Despite these uncertainties, some believe lasting changes are already taking root. The conflict has demonstrated that drones and missiles can disrupt vital waterways, highlighting the insecurity of oil and natural gas supplies, according to Gross. Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University, believes the conflict "could have a sustained effect because dozens of countries are now promoting EV incentives, charging infrastructure and electrification in general." However, Jackson dismisses the idea of Trump as an accidental climate president as "ridiculous," arguing that while he may have spurred clean energy adoption abroad, his policies have severely hampered green energy in the US, setting the country back decades. Jackson concludes, "The forces driving green energy around the world — cleaner, cheaper fuels — will ultimately prevail despite him."