Israel's Election: A Continent Watches as African Nations Navigate Shifting Alliances

As Israelis gear up for their election on October 27, governments across Africa, from Pretoria to Rabat, are closely observing the potential impact on their foreign and domestic policies. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has highlighted significant divisions on the continent, with some nations opting for diplomatic measures against Israel while others maintain crucial commercial and security ties.

Recent polls indicate a tight race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and its far-right coalition, and a bloc of opposition parties. Neither side is currently projected to secure the 61 seats necessary for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, suggesting a complex period of coalition negotiations post-election. The incoming government's approach to Gaza and the broader Palestinian issue could significantly influence Israel's ability to preserve and expand its partnerships throughout Africa.

Israel's relationships across Africa are characterized by a complex interplay of competing priorities. While the Gaza war has amplified diplomatic pressure and public opposition in many African countries, security imperatives, commercial interests, and established bilateral partnerships continue to shape governmental decisions.

Diplomatic Strain vs. Closer Ties

Since the conflict began in October 2023, South Africa has become one of Israel's most prominent critics in Africa. Its government has initiated proceedings against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), alleging breaches of the 1948 Genocide Convention, claims that Israel vehemently denies. The court's provisional measures, issued in 2024, which include an order for Israel to take steps to prevent genocidal acts, are not a final determination of whether genocide has occurred.

In November 2023, South Africa's National Assembly passed a motion urging the government to shutter the Israeli embassy and sever diplomatic relations. Although this motion did not immediately enact these measures, it underscored the significant political opposition to Israel's military operations in Gaza.

Conversely, other African governments have adopted distinct approaches, reflecting their unique political priorities and foreign policy calculations, rather than a unified continental stance. Chad, for instance, recalled its ambassador to Israel in November 2023. Meanwhile, some nations have sustained their relations despite widespread criticism of Israel's military campaign.

Morocco presents a different scenario. Relations with Israel were re-established in 2020 under a US-brokered agreement that included Washington's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Despite public demonstrations against normalization, Rabat has continued to pursue closer ties. On September 16, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita convened in New York at a trilateral summit hosted by US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz. The three nations reaffirmed their commitment to upgrading diplomatic relations, elevating their respective missions to embassies, and appointing ambassadors. They also agreed to finalize investment protection and double taxation agreements by year-end, expand air travel to include Moroccan airlines, and arrange reciprocal high-level visits in the coming months. These were announced intentions, not yet confirmed implementations.

Idowu Johnson, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Ibadan, suggests that the diversity among African states makes predicting a uniform response to Israel's election outcomes challenging. "Africa's heterogeneity means individual states have handled relations with Israel separately," Johnson stated. "Since the October 7, 2023 attacks, African criticism has focused on Israel’s denial of Palestinian statehood." He added, "The October 27 election will therefore be pivotal, as a new government’s stance on the Palestinian cause will shape how far Africa cooperates on agriculture, trade, security and technology, guided by self-determination and international law as well as bilateral interests."