Balkan Nations Chart Independent Courses with Israel Amidst Gaza Conflict

Throughout Israel’s conflict in Gaza, Europe’s stance has shown some alignment, though outliers like Spain and the Republic of Ireland have been more vocal in their criticism. However, much of the continent has shifted from unwavering support for Israel to expressing concerns about its actions. In the Balkans, policies toward Israel are diverse, shaped by domestic considerations, strategic diplomacy, and unresolved identity politics rather than a unified regional outlook on the Middle East, according to experts. "The Balkan countries have almost no common positions at all, and so it’s not surprising their positions towards Israel and Gaza are all over the map," stated Marko Prelec, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. "Each country goes its own way." Prelec observed that while genuine sympathy for Palestinians and revulsion towards Israeli policy in Gaza exist, particularly among Bosnian Muslims, most regional countries base their positions on distinct interests. Florian Bieber, a professor of Southeast European history and politics at the University of Graz, noted that achieving regional consensus is exceptionally difficult. "The position towards Israel is strongly shaped by domestic politics and also national narratives, which makes a regional or even a country-specific position unlikely," Bieber told Al Jazeera.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Internal Divisions Dictate Stance

The war in Gaza has exacerbated existing ethno-national divisions within Bosnia and Herzegovina, highlighting the region's policy fragmentation. Bosniak political figures and a significant portion of the public in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina have shown strong solidarity with Palestinians. Conversely, leaders in Republika Srpska have openly supported Israel, with some Croat political figures also adopting a more sympathetic stance. "Bosniak solidarity with Palestinians is often seen not just through an ideological lens, but also from the perspective of war and being a victim of Serb nationalist aggression, comparing the Palestinian experience with the Bosniak experience in the 1990s," Bieber explained. In contrast, leaders in the Serb-majority entity, Republika Srpska, including former President Milorad Dodik, have actively courted Israel. Foreign policy analyst and journalist Bosko Jaksic commented that for Dodik, the strategy is "The enemy of my enemy is my friend – Jews and Orthodox Serbs against Muslims." This religious and ethnic framing allows him to maintain an Israeli connection alongside his ties to Russia, while also engaging with the Trump administration. Prelec added that the outreach from Bosnian Serbs to Israel, particularly the Likud party, is an "attempt to find allies for its internationally unpopular flirtation with separatism, and an indirect way to strengthen ties with parts of the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement and the Trump administration."

Serbia: Balancing Arms Sales and Geopolitics

Serbia's approach to Israel combines defense economics with foreign policy objectives. Despite historical ties with Palestine and support for Palestinian membership in international forums, Belgrade has exported ammunition and arms to Israel since October 2023. This relationship has expanded beyond exports, with Serbia opening an Israeli-linked drone assembly plant in September, signifying growing defense cooperation. Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy and grand strategy at King’s College London, noted that Serbia's defense industry has been pragmatic in its clientele, with profit being a factor. However, he stressed broader geopolitical aims, stating, "In the past three years, there has been a tilt towards Israel regarding security cooperation, while diplomatically Serbia tries to be cautious in multilateral institutions due to its ties with the wider Islamic world." Vuksanovic also pointed out that Belgrade sees Israel as a partner for "acquire the protection of Israeli lobby groups and access to the Trump administration in the US," especially given domestic political challenges. Jaksic cautioned about international repercussions, warning, "Due to the significant increase in ammunition exports to Israel during the war in Gaza, Serbia risks being accused of complicity in genocide." He added that beyond financial gains, the Serbian president seeks to leverage closeness with "ideological, authoritarian, and nationalist ally, [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu, to get closer to Trump."

Kosovo, Albania, and the U.S. Alliance

For Kosovo and Albania, foreign policy concerning Israel remains closely tied to their security alliances with Washington. Under the 2020 Washington Agreement, Kosovo recognized Israel in exchange for Israeli recognition of Kosovo’s independence and subsequently opened its embassy in Jerusalem. Serbia, which had pledged to move its embassy to Jerusalem in 2020, did not follow through. Jaksic noted that Pristina's decision to open its Jerusalem embassy "defying the stance of the wider international community." He further observed, "Israel’s growing influence in the Western Balkans is evident. That includes investments, and in the case of Serbia, especially military cooperation. This absolutely does not exclude personal attempts to buy political impunity from American sanctions, or to ease diplomatic pressure." In Albania, Prime Minister Edi Rama's government has maintained strong political ties with Israel, partly driven by defense needs. Following cyberattacks, Albania deepened cooperation with Israeli cybersecurity firms while aligning its broader diplomacy with Washington and Brussels.

Internal Rifts and Ideological Shifts in Croatia and Slovenia

In Croatia, foreign policy regarding Gaza has been hampered by a significant division between conservative Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and President Zoran Milanovic. Plenkovic's government has adopted a cautious, mainstream European Union approach, while Milanovic has openly condemned Israel’s military actions in Gaza as disproportionate, creating a public rift in the country's foreign policy leadership. Slovenia has witnessed ideological shifts. The previous center-left government implemented firm measures against Israel, including an arms embargo, a ban on imports from settlements, and barring entry for Israeli officials like Netanyahu, alongside recognizing Palestinian statehood. Conservative forces, led by Prime Minister Janez Jansa, have sought to reverse these policies. Bieber explained, "In Slovenia, we can see the classic left-right division where populist and far-right parties support Israel because of Netanyahu as a similar political actor. They recognise him as ideologically aligned, which helps reinforce their view of Islam as a threat, fitting their own narratives."

Subtle Alignments and Strategic Partnerships in Smaller Nations

Smaller NATO members such as Montenegro and North Macedonia have opted for a strategy of quiet alignment, adhering to standard EU and NATO statements calling for ceasefires and humanitarian aid while avoiding high-profile diplomatic disputes. Further east, Romania and Bulgaria maintain a cautious stance that occasionally favors Israel. Rooted in historical bilateral relations and strong strategic defense partnerships with the United States, Bucharest and Sofia balance carefully worded statements at the UN with ongoing military and intelligence coordination. Meanwhile, Greece has consistently maintained a robust strategic military and energy partnership with Israel, recently signing a $3.5 billion missile deal. This alliance, initially formed with Cyprus to counter regional maritime rivalries in the Eastern Mediterranean, has endured despite significant public protests over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Ultimately, the varied responses across the Balkans underscore that Middle Eastern policy in the region is seldom about the Middle East itself. Whether driven by defense industry profits, constitutional disputes, or the pursuit of political backing in Washington, regional actors largely view Israel through a transactional lens.