Myanmar's Junta Leader Courts Neighbors for Legitimacy Amidst Escalating Civil War

A Rohingya activist has voiced concerns that the repatriation of refugees back to Myanmar is unjust. In September, Malaysia extended an invitation to Myanmar's coup leader and current president, Min Aung Hlaing, for a visit, emphasizing that the trip was not intended as official recognition. The stated purpose was to address the protracted issue of refugees and migrants from Myanmar residing in Malaysia. However, upon Min Aung Hlaing's arrival in Kuala Lumpur last week, the former general, whose 2021 military takeover ignited a brutal civil war, was accorded a ceremonial welcome, including an honor guard.

Following a luncheon on Thursday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced that Myanmar had agreed to repatriate its nationals at its own expense, a message that resonates in Malaysia amidst growing anti-refugee sentiment. Malaysia currently hosts approximately 193,000 individuals from Myanmar, a significant portion belonging to the persecuted Rohingya Muslim minority. Min Aung Hlaing stated, "Because the weather is favourable, I will dispatch Navy ships to repatriate them." Prime Minister Anwar pledged to facilitate Myanmar's reintegration into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a bloc of 11 nations that has excluded Min Aung Hlaing from high-level discussions due to his non-compliance with its peace initiatives. Malaysia has been a strong proponent of the Five Point Consensus, which advocates for an end to violence and dialogue among the conflicting parties. The civil war in Myanmar, now in its fifth year, has resulted in an estimated 100,000 fatalities and displaced at least 3.5 million people, according to monitoring organizations.

"Malaysia will do whatever is possible to make sure that we … ultimately, take Myanmar as part of our community of nations, without prejudice, and particularly in the context of ASEAN," Anwar informed reporters. Malaysia marks the fifth ASEAN country to host Min Aung Hlaing since he assumed the presidency in April, following elections in December and January from which major opposition parties were barred. In recent months, he has visited Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. His spokesperson indicated that Indonesia and Brunei might be his next destinations after Malaysia. Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute in Kuala Lumpur, commented, "Malaysia’s reversal on Min Aung Hlaing has broken a dam of opposition to the junta." She suggested that regional leaders welcoming Min Aung Hlaing, despite accusations of crimes against humanity, are prioritizing pragmatism over human rights. "It is a step back for ASEAN as an organisation, and for Myanmar," she stated. "It does not offer any concrete path to the resolution of the Myanmar crisis, and in fact, arguably worsens it by giving the military legitimacy internationally, a legitimacy it does not have in Myanmar itself."

‘Convenience plays a part’

Min Aung Hlaing's diplomatic rehabilitation extends beyond Southeast Asia. Since April, he has also visited India, China, Russia, and Belarus, where he has sought to portray his administration as stable and committed to democracy, while also promoting trade and infrastructure agreements. Even the United States has reportedly initiated direct talks with Min Aung Hlaing's government, according to Reuters, despite existing sanctions against him for human rights abuses, including the 2017 crackdown on the Rohingya, which prompted over 700,000 to flee to Bangladesh and which the US has characterized as genocide. The recent discussions reportedly focus on dismantling scam operations based in Myanmar that have defrauded Americans of billions of dollars. Khin Zaw Win, director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, noted that Min Aung Hlaing's pursuit of international legitimacy has been bolstered by coordinated efforts from China, India, and Thailand, all of which share borders with Myanmar. These neighboring countries have experienced repercussions from the conflict, such as border skirmishes, trade disruptions, and refugee inflows. Khin Zaw Win believes these three nations "have the biggest stakes in how Myanmar pans out" and desire recognition for the military-installed government. "Convenience plays a part for all of them," he added.

Despite the increased diplomatic engagement, the conflict in Myanmar remains unresolved. While Min Aung Hlaing has invited all armed factions to peace talks, fighting persists across much of the country. His forces are engaged in offensives to reclaim territory lost to opposition rebels and ethnic armed groups in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, and Karen states, as well as the Sagaing region. These efforts are supported by an intensified air campaign and a recruitment drive that has expanded their ranks by tens of thousands. China has also contributed by mediating ceasefires between the military and influential ethnic armed groups along its border. However, Laetitia van den Assum, a former Dutch diplomat, expressed skepticism about the military regaining full control of the country, stating, "That would require a huge occupation army and not – as now – a garrison army that controls a particular location." She elaborated, "That is why Min Aung Hlaing… bets on an increasing number of temporary ceasefires in some parts of the country so that troops can be directed to areas where he wants to continue fighting." Van den Assum found it "quite surprising" that ASEAN nations are pursuing Rohingya repatriation with the very individual accused of orchestrating atrocities against them. Myanmar has historically denied citizenship to the Rohingya, making their acceptance as nationals uncertain. Furthermore, with significant portions of Rakhine State, their ancestral homeland, now under the control of the ethnic Arakan Army, their potential destinations remain unclear. "It is the blind speaking to the blind," she concluded.

‘Low-cost, high optics’

Min Aung Hlaing has made other conciliatory gestures. Shortly before his visit to Thailand in August, he permitted the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to visit Aung San Suu Kyi, the civilian leader he ousted in 2021. The 81-year-old Nobel laureate, held incommunicado since the coup, was photographed for the first time in years during the ICRC visit on August 3. Sai Kyi Zin Soe, a research fellow at the University of Sydney, described this action as a "low-cost, high-optics gesture rather than a real political opening," confirming only that Aung San Suu Kyi was alive. He pointed out that the military's airstrikes have continued unabated, even as ASEAN leaders engage in diplomacy, citing a September 28 strike on a market in Rakhine State that reportedly killed around 50 people. He asserted that these ongoing attacks are "the strongest evidence that soft diplomacy hasn’t produced any deterrent effect." Sai Kyi Zin Soe also cautioned that the legitimacy granted by foreign visits would further embolden the military. "Given the near-total absence of deterrence, no meaningful sanctions enforcement, an ASEAN pivoting toward re-engagement, and continued arms and fuel access via China and Russia, the military has every structural incentive to keep escalating, particularly in contested zones like Sagaing and Rakhine, where its grip is weakest," he warned. Much hinges on the Philippines and Singapore, the current and incoming chairs of ASEAN. Phil Robertson, director of Asia Human Rights and Labor Advocates, urged these nations to establish an agenda that firmly resists regional pressure to fully reintegrate Myanmar and to maintain focus on the bloc's five-point peace plan. He also called upon the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and the European Union to implement targeted sanctions, such as an aviation fuel ban, rather than leaving the "Myanmar conundrum" solely to the regional bloc. "International accountability is now more urgent than ever, whether that comes through additional universal jurisdiction cases or some sort of breakthrough to refer Myanmar’s generals to the International Criminal Court," he concluded. Zaheena Rasheed reported and wrote from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.