Iran Leverages War Costs to Influence US Midterm Elections

Iran is strategically highlighting the economic repercussions of the ongoing conflict, seemingly targeting the American public ahead of the United States midterm elections. Iranian officials have published content through state-affiliated media outlets, emphasizing the detrimental impact of the war on global oil prices and the U.S. economy. Concurrently, Iran's chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has directly addressed U.S. officials, focusing on escalating costs and military expenditures.

Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, suggests that Tehran's objective is to increase the political cost of the war for President Trump by communicating directly with the American populace. Toossi explained to Al Jazeera, "It’s not necessarily that they’re trying to get Democrats in power or manipulate US politics in a certain direction, other than just overall increasing the costs on this issue of the Iran war, and just playing that game of information warfare and getting out their own narrative and propaganda as well."

The Republican Party, led by Trump, is aiming to maintain its control over the Senate and House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. However, the Democratic Party, which largely opposes the war with Iran, is presenting a significant challenge across various congressional districts, including historically conservative areas like Texas.

On Wednesday, Ghalibaf shared a news report detailing a 3.7 percent inflation increase last month, accompanied by a compilation of negative headlines concerning the U.S. economy. The social media post also included a comic strip depicting Wile E. Coyote being harmed by his own misfired contraption. Ghalibaf captioned his message to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been spearheading the sanctions against Iran, "Let’s ‘play the percentages’. Not in odds, but in the % increases." Bessent had previously described his role as representing "the house," comparing the economy to a casino while discussing the national debt and bond market.

Ghalibaf's statement served to underscore the rising cost of living due to the war, countering Bessent's assertions. Earlier, he had posted an image illustrating rising diesel prices, declining housing affordability, and falling consumer confidence, using a ghost-shaped bell curve graphic.

Since the commencement of hostilities on February 28, Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a surge in energy prices. In the U.S., the price of diesel has reached a record high of $6.33 per gallon, with gasoline at $4.33, a significant increase from pre-war levels below $3, according to the American Automobile Association. Iran has escalated its attacks on vessels near the strait in recent days, following repeated assertions by Trump and his administration that the waterway is under U.S. control.

The rise in energy prices has contributed to broader inflation, prompting the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase interest rates last month, a move that contradicts Trump's calls for rate cuts to stimulate economic activity.

In a letter addressed to the American public on September 29, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused Trump of misrepresenting the war's costs and the state of the U.S. economy, refuting claims that oil prices would soon decline. The IRGC stated, "Countries around the world have lost their faith in the US economy. Demand for American bonds has plummeted. In fact, countries are starting to offload their US bonds. Soon, the dam will break, and the economy will implode, causing, unfortunately, great pain for Americans for many many years." The statement urged Americans to "wake up" and "wrest control back from corrupt politicians," asserting that the American political system is currently at its weakest.

The U.S. midterm elections are viewed as a potential turning point in the conflict, not necessarily due to their electoral outcome, but because of possible actions by Trump post-election. Trump has indicated he might either negotiate a deal with Iran or re-engage in full-scale war after the November 3 legislative elections, while also downplaying the election's impact on his Iran policy. At the United Nations General Assembly, Trump remarked, "They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don’t realise is that I’m not running... I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election. When it comes to Iran, it doesn’t even enter my mind. The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon."

A Democratic victory in Congress could empower them to pursue measures limiting Trump's ability to continue the war, such as withholding military funding. However, Toossi noted that there is internal debate within Iran regarding the potential impact of a Democratic win. Some analysts believe that the influence of foreign policy hawks within the Democratic party might lead to minimal changes, while others suggest that a midterm defeat could weaken Trump politically and constrain his war powers. Toossi concluded, "I don’t think they’re hedging their bets either way, and I don’t think it necessarily affects their overall strategy of increasing the costs [of war] regardless of whatever happens in November," speaking to Al Jazeera.