Europe's Air Defence Dilemma: Balancing Saudi Needs Against Russian Threat

European allies are facing a significant challenge in supplying Saudi Arabia with additional air defence weapons, as these systems are critically needed to bolster defences against the escalating Russian threat, according to military analysts speaking to The National. Saudi Arabia is actively seeking enhanced air defence capabilities to counter ongoing Houthi attacks. However, defence sources have indicated that both Britain and France are unable to divert these systems without compromising their deterrent posture against Russia in the Baltic region.

Britain, among other European allies, is currently providing substantial arms supplies to Ukraine, including a recent reported shipment of Stormshadow cruise missiles intended for striking Russian military infrastructure. Despite these commitments, Dr. Lynette Nusbacher, a former military intelligence officer, emphasized Saudi Arabia's urgent requirement for more air defence systems from key partners like Britain, France, Italy, and the United States.

"They need it because they are a big country," Dr. Nusbacher stated. "They've got a lot of big targets that are easily spottable on Google Earth and they're up against people who have got sufficient ballistic missiles." The kingdom's vulnerability was starkly highlighted by a Houthi missile attack on King Khalid International Airport last Saturday, which resulted in 12 fatalities and 309 injuries. This incident underscores the Houthi rebels' willingness to target civilian areas, and given Saudi Arabia's vast size—five times that of Ukraine—its need for expanded defences is evident.

However, with existing commitments to Eastern Europe and the critical demand for missile and drone interceptors in Ukraine, many Western countries find their defence stockpiles significantly depleted. France has committed to sending defensive military systems to secure the vital Red Sea port of Yanbu, though specific details about the equipment have not been disclosed.

A UK defence source commented on the scarcity of available resources, stating, "We have very little left in the locker to give. We really have nothing to send over to them." Britain already maintains a battery of Sky Sabre air defence systems, operated by the 16th Regiment Royal Artillery, at King Fahd Air Base. However, deploying additional systems would necessitate their withdrawal from Eastern Europe, where British and French armoured deployments are intended to deter potential Russian aggression.

"If they ask the UK to send them more Sky Sabre, where will they get it?" Dr. Nusbacher questioned. "Well, the answer is we've got to strip it out of the Baltics." The analyst warned that reducing air defence capabilities in Eastern Europe could weaken a crucial deterrent at a time when Russia is testing Western resolve. "What we see here is that we are being asked to dislocate combat power," she explained. "The French are being asked to dislocate combat power from Eastern Europe, from one theatre of this wider war to another theatre of this war." A reduction in air defence deployments, she argued, could embolden Russia to escalate its actions.

American Patriot systems in the Middle East have been prioritized for the protection of U.S. bases, with interceptors already drawn down from western Pacific stocks. Nevertheless, a Western diplomatic source noted Saudi Arabia's strong desire for increased involvement from Britain in its defence. "The Saudis are desperate for more UK involvement," the source said. "It is seen still as a reliable, trustworthy partner with military capabilities and they would hugely welcome greater UK involvement. They need hardware in terms of air defence systems and are desperate for more of that."

It is understood that Saudi Arabia, which until recently was using five to seven interceptors per incoming missile, is now conserving stocks by using only a couple at a time. Francis Tusa, editor of Defence Eye, suggested that Britain could potentially offer a limited number of Rapid Ranger systems, equipped with Starstreak and Martlet missiles for short-range defence, noting that only a few dozen are available and some are already deployed in Saudi Arabia.

Tusa also proposed that Britain could deploy a Type-45 destroyer to the southern Red Sea for ballistic missile defence and station RAF Typhoon fighters in Saudi Arabia, similar to deployments made earlier in the year to cover the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. France and Italy might be able to provide their SAMP/T systems, armed with Aster interceptors, but they too have existing commitments. Britain is expected to contribute intelligence gathered from surveillance satellites and listening stations in Cyprus to monitor Houthi activity.

Joe Walker-Cousins, a former UK diplomatic official with extensive experience in the Middle East, advised that Britain should discreetly enhance its diplomatic and intelligence support. He highlighted that while the UK has significant commitments in Ukraine and the Baltic states, the Middle East is becoming increasingly volatile. "Investment in air defence must become a much greater priority, not just so we can stand shoulder to shoulder with our friends in the Gulf but also back home," he stated from Riyadh. "Britain is a global player and must be prepared to meet its global commitments," he added. "That requires a major and sustained increase in defence spending. Anything less leaves Britain and its allies perilously exposed and projects a weakness that only encourages malign actors to push further."