US Secretary of State Rubio's Uzbekistan Visit Signals Central Asia's Search for Diverse Global Partnerships

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to arrive in Samarkand, the historic Silk Road city, for crucial talks with key regional ministers. The upcoming C5+1 summit, involving Central Asia and the US, scheduled from Saturday to Tuesday, signifies Washington's revised strategy for the ex-Soviet region. This new approach is characterized as pragmatic and purely transactional, deliberately omitting discussions on democratization and human rights.

In the early years of Central Asia's independence, the United States often engaged with the region, strategically positioned between Russia, China, and Iran, by offering aid and delivering lectures. Following the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, amidst widespread economic decline, joblessness, and poverty, US and European diplomats and business figures were perceived as harbingers of a new era of capitalist prosperity. They advocated for reforms extending beyond economic restructuring. Western diplomats emphasized to the new regional leaders, many of whom were former Communist officials, that investments, technologies, and international recognition were contingent upon abandoning Soviet-era governance models and economic practices. The West organized forums and workshops on human rights, democracy, and decentralized governance, and facilitated educational opportunities for thousands of students and officials in Western institutions. Conversely, the West also criticized regional leaders for perceived moral failings and threatened sanctions when they amended their constitutions to extend presidential terms, appointed family and friends to key government positions, and fostered business empires that often clashed with Western investors.

“When the West began moralizing, teaching them about democracy, human rights, they immediately turned towards China or Russia,” noted Galiya Ibragimova, a regional expert born in Uzbekistan and based in Moldova, in a statement to Al Jazeera. Uzbekistan, the most populous nation in the region with 37 million inhabitants, serves as a pertinent example. Its former President Islam Karimov was the first ex-Soviet leader to permit a US military base on his country's soil in 2001. However, four years later, the base was expelled after Washington condemned his government's violent suppression of a popular uprising in the eastern city of Andijan, which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of unarmed civilians. A leaked US diplomatic cable from 2005 described Karimov's daughter, Gulnara, as a “robber baron” who had forcibly acquired lucrative businesses and was considered her father's potential successor.

Observers suggest that the dynamics have shifted since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Moscow continues to wield considerable soft power in Central Asia through various cultural channels, including films, music, and television programs that often disseminate misinformation about the war. The Kremlin also leverages its economic influence to promote the concept of the “Russian World,” viewing the region as its “near abroad” and dismissing its pre-Russian heritage as backward and insignificant. In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that Kazakhstan had “never had statehood,” and his allies have periodically suggested annexing its Russian-speaking northern territories. This year, Kazakhstan has begun extraditing Kremlin critics and supplying gas to Russia amidst Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. In January, Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov suggested that Moscow should initiate a “special military operation” in Central Asia and Armenia, mirroring the terminology used for the war in Ukraine. While minor political figures have voiced criticism, there has been no significant rebuke from influential powers. Concurrently, Central Asian labor migrants have been coerced or deceived into military service in Ukraine, and Moscow is utilizing Central Asian companies to procure microchips, communication equipment, and machine tools for drone and missile production.

“These days, the US and Russia have switched roles. Today, it’s Russia that began building ties through moralizing,” stated Ibragimova, the regional expert.

Meanwhile, the administration of US President Donald Trump has moved away from its pro-democracy stance, now advocating for a utilitarian and transactional foreign policy. “Under Trump, the American policy in Central Asia is all about ‘just business and nothing more,’ without being nosy about human rights, reforms. They are content with everything,” Ibragimova commented. Earlier this month, Trump hosted Saida Mirziyoyeva, the daughter of Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The previous year, Mirziyoyev committed to investing up to $100 billion in the US economy, purchasing Boeing aircraft, and even US-grown cotton, despite Uzbekistan being a major global cotton producer. Washington made no public statements regarding Mirziyoyev's crackdown on critics or his daughter's increasing influence within the country.

After largely neglecting Central Asia during Trump's first term, the White House is seeking to re-establish its presence. “The interest is mostly geopolitical and military-strategic, considering the region’s location in the zone of Russia’s and China’s interests,” explained Alisher Ilkhamov, head of the London-based Central Asia Due Diligence think tank, to Al Jazeera. “In the future, Washington apparently wants to have a military base here as a deterrent measure against China,” he added. Economic interests appear to center on rare-earth minerals, essential for manufacturing a wide range of technologies, and other critical elements, particularly given China's use of these resources as leverage in its relations with Washington. While deposits are abundant, they require development, technology, and investment. The White House has shown minimal interest in human rights violations in Central Asia, such as the imprisonment of political opponents and independent journalists.

“An interest in these issues, unfortunately, is absent from Rubio’s agenda, because these problems went missing from US foreign policy priorities since Trump returned to the White House,” Ilkhamov stated. Ivar Dale, a senior policy adviser with the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, a human rights watchdog, echoed these concerns, noting “uncomfortable similarities between Trump’s worldview and established authoritarian regimes like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.” However, Dale suggested that “Marco Rubio probably has a better understanding of Central Asia and the challenges there than does [Vice President] JD Vance and [Defense Secretary] Pete Hegseth.” Dale concluded that “the US State Department ‘should bring back the focus [on human rights] if the C5+1 format is to be taken seriously going forward.’”