Hurricane Trudy Intensifies, Threatening Mexico's Pacific Coast with Heavy Rainfall and Flooding

Hurricane Trudy maintained its strength as it moved towards Mexico’s western coast on Saturday, with forecasters warning it could strengthen further before beginning to weaken on Sunday. A hurricane warning was in effect from Manzanillo in Colima state to Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco.

The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Trudy was approximately 305km (190 miles) south-southeast of Manzanillo early Saturday, boasting maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h (90mph). The hurricane was tracking at about 13km/h (8mph) and was forecast to approach southwestern and west-central Mexico later on Saturday, passing near the coast overnight into Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are anticipated in the warning area on Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to spread across the region during the day, according to the NHC. Areas under a hurricane watch may also experience hurricane conditions.

Trudy is projected to deliver 10 to 20cm (four to eight inches) of rain across parts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through the weekend. Isolated totals could reach approximately 38cm (15 inches), increasing the risk of life-threatening flooding and landslides, particularly in steep terrain, the NHC stated. Outer rain bands might produce two to four inches of rain in Guerrero and Nayarit, with isolated totals of about 15cm (six inches), where localized flash flooding is a possibility.

The NHC also issued a warning about potential coastal flooding from storm surge in areas exposed to onshore winds, accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Trudy have already begun impacting parts of Mexico’s southwestern coast and are expected to move northward towards the country’s west-central coast over the weekend, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

The Mexican navy has urged the maritime community and coastal residents to exercise extreme caution due to high waves, heavy rains, and the potential for rising river levels, flooding, and landslides in vulnerable areas. The state of Colima has indicated that current risks are low, but acknowledged that the storm's significant rainfall could have damaging effects, especially given the saturated ground from previous storms that have affected the Pacific coast.