Nigeria's 2027 Election Kicks Off as President Bola Tinubu Faces High-Stakes Reform and Security Tests

Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu has faced growing criticism over insecurity, including a surge in mass kidnappings across the country. In Ilorin, north-central Nigeria, 43-year-old Shukurat Oyedele unlocks her small plastic goods shop near Offa Garage every morning, despite expecting few customers. On quiet days, she sits outside reading the Quran while waiting for buyers. Her business once attracted a steady flow of customers, but rising prices have forced many Nigerians to cut back on routine purchases.

“People are interested in buying the things I sell, but they have become really expensive. Once they check their pockets and see that they cannot afford it, they won’t buy it no matter how much they like it, except if they can’t do without it,” Oyedele, a mother of four, told Al Jazeera. A 21-litre bucket that sold for 1,500 naira two years ago now costs about 3,200 naira, forcing many customers to delay purchases or buy smaller quantities. Oyedele’s profits have fallen, and her shop now carries fewer goods.

Oyedele’s struggle captures the political dilemma facing President Bola Tinubu as Nigeria moves towards the 2027 presidential election: whether voters will judge his reforms by their long-term promises or by the immediate economic pain they have endured. Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy shortly after taking office in 2023 and introduced foreign-exchange reforms that allowed the naira to trade more freely, arguing that the measures were necessary to strengthen public finances, attract investment, and stabilise Africa’s largest economy.

The reforms won support from investors and economists who argued that Nigeria needed to address deep structural problems. However, the benefits are typically slower to reach households than the costs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that while macroeconomic stability improved, living conditions remain difficult. For many households, the immediate impact includes higher food prices, rising transport costs, and declining purchasing power.

“The government has to convince Nigerians that those gains will eventually translate into better lives, and give them a credible reason to wait for that to happen,” Sekinat Ojeniyi, a senior analyst at Africa Practice, told Al Jazeera. “That is a much harder political proposition when people have already made significant sacrifices.”

For Tinubu, the political test involves persuading voters to endure costs before feeling benefits. While the government points to improving economic indicators, many Nigerians experience the economy through basic household needs. Cheta Nwanze, a partner at SBM Intelligence, noted that voters experiencing hardship at the household level are not weighing GDP charts, and argued that Tinubu’s path to a second term depends largely on opposition fragmentation and lower voter turnout among critics.

Economic hardship is compounded by ongoing insecurity involving armed fighters, kidnappers, and religious groups in parts of the north and Middle Belt. Anne Ochayi, a lawyer living in Makurdi, told Al Jazeera that insecurity remains her biggest concern. “We all live in fear. Aside from being on the road, this thing can come and meet you in your house,” she said.

Although the security crisis gives opposition parties campaign issues, public frustration does not automatically guarantee electoral change. Prominent opposition figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi remain in contention, but attempts to unite the opposition behind a single candidate have failed so far. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) retains significant advantages through its extensive political networks and grassroots organisation.

As voters like Oyedele, Ochayi, Thomas Eneji, and others look toward 2027, the election will ultimately be judged by whether daily life improves and whether political promises translate into tangible change.