DRC Peace Prospects Dim as Former President Joseph Kabila Joins Rebellion

Hopes for peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have been dealt a significant blow with the announcement that former President Joseph Kabila has joined a new political-military coalition challenging the authority of President Felix Tshisekedi. This new entity, named the Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN), or Front for the Refoundation of the Nation, was unveiled in Goma on Monday evening. The FRN, led by Kabila, effectively replaces the previous alliance between the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) and the March 23 Movement (M23). The coalition unites figures and forces associated with both the AFC and M23, and it has publicly accused Tshisekedi of tyranny, calling for resistance through all available means, including armed force.

Goma, the primary city in North Kivu province in eastern Congo, has been under the control of M23 since January of the previous year. Kabila's direct involvement now places a former head of state at the forefront of the rebellion. This ongoing conflict has led to the displacement of millions and has drawn in neighboring countries, with its origins deeply rooted in decades of regional rivalries, persistent security concerns, and competition over territory and valuable mineral resources. The aftermath of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide significantly contributed to the wars that have ravaged the region, and ongoing tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali continue to influence the dynamics of the fighting.

The M23 movement asserts that it took up arms due to the Congolese government's failure to uphold prior agreements. Both the Congolese government and international observers have accused Rwanda of backing the M23 group, an allegation that Kigali denies, citing security threats posed by armed groups operating in eastern Congo. It remains uncertain whether Kabila's leadership will alter the trajectory of the rebellion or further complicate efforts to achieve peace.

In Goma, residents express deep concern that this latest political realignment will push the prospects of peace even further out of reach. For residents like Basa Juhudi, Kabila’s decision has reignited fears that the conflict will be prolonged. "As a resident of Goma, I believed the war might end in the very near future, hoping that the Congolese government would liberate us. And we are greatly surprised that even our former president has joined the fray," he told Al Jazeera. Juhudi highlighted that Kabila’s extensive political experience makes his involvement particularly troubling. "The fact that Joseph Kabila has joined the rebellion, bearing in mind that he is our former president and knows this country inside out, means the war is far from over. I am not happy about this frightening situation." He also voiced concerns for the country's democratic future, recalling the peaceful transfer of power in 2019 when Tshisekedi succeeded Kabila. "Today, I am very afraid. I don’t know if I will be lucky enough to experience a proper democracy in the DRC. I was delighted by the country’s very first peaceful transfer of power," Juhudi added.

Kabila ascended to power in 2001 following the assassination of his father, Laurent-Desire Kabila. He was subsequently elected president in 2006 and re-elected in 2011. His second constitutional term was scheduled to end in 2016, but elections were postponed. Critics accused him of attempting to remain in power beyond the constitutionally mandated two terms, leading to protests met with violent suppression before a political compromise allowed for elections in December 2018. Tshisekedi was declared the winner and assumed office in January 2019, marking a historic peaceful transfer of presidential power through elections in the DRC. Kabila had defended the election delays, stating that the Congolese people had resolved their issues through dialogue. His current alignment with the FRN signifies a new phase in his political contest with Tshisekedi. The coalition positions itself as a political alternative to the current government while simultaneously posing an armed challenge to its authority. The extent to which Kabila can leverage his political experience and networks for broader support remains to be seen.

Kabila’s move has drawn criticism from within the Congolese political establishment. Vital Kamerhe, a former speaker of the National Assembly and leader of the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC), has urged the movement to cease armed conflict. "You cannot erase your own record by accusing your successor," Kamerhe stated, urging leaders of the movement to "abandon their plans and prioritise the path of dialogue. Whatever our frustrations, our differences or our ambitions, nothing, absolutely nothing, can justify us taking up weapons against our own country, at the risk of sacrificing our own Congolese lives." His appeal underscores the central challenge to peace efforts: unresolved political grievances coupled with renewed fighting that threatens an already war-weary population.

Diplomatic initiatives by the United States and Qatar are underway to resolve the conflict. In Doha, representatives from the Congolese government and the AFC-M23 have engaged in discussions concerning a ceasefire, refugee repatriation, the release of detainees, and measures to combat stigmatizing rhetoric against ethnic minorities. Washington has been pursuing an agreement between the DRC and Rwanda that includes commitments to neutralize the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and ensure the withdrawal of Rwandan troops from Congolese territory. These initiatives address interconnected aspects of the crisis. Kabila's emergence as the FRN leader raises questions about the representation of the armed opposition and the adherence to existing commitments. However, the new coalition has stated its intention to honor commitments made during the Doha negotiations. Freddy Kaniki, a leader within the FRN, announced in a communique that the coalition's formation signifies the dissolution of the AFC, with the FRN assuming its predecessor's rights, obligations, and commitments, particularly those related to the Doha negotiations. This suggests the coalition aims to uphold prior agreements, though its practical implementation remains to be seen.

For Congolese human rights activist Josue Akuzwe Walayi, this development jeopardizes hopes raised by the negotiations. "My greatest fear is for the future of the Doha and Washington peace initiatives; it is not just that they will be a diplomatic failure, but that they will become yet more agreements without any real peace for the Congolese people," he told Al Jazeera. Walayi argues that agreements lacking effective accountability mechanisms risk becoming hollow promises, emphasizing that lasting peace requires adherence to commitments and impartial investigation and punishment of violations. "What would the Doha and Washington agreements be worth if, despite the negotiations, Congolese people continue to die, families remain forced into exile and communities live in fear? The danger would be to normalise the war whilst the people pay the price," he warned.

Kabila's return to the conflict's center stage occurs amidst his ongoing legal battles with the Congolese state. Last year, a Congolese military court sentenced him in absentia to death on charges including treason and war crimes, with alleged links to the M23 rebellion. His relatives have denounced the conviction as unjust and politically motivated. Goma resident Willo Riziki suggests that Kabila’s involvement necessitates a reassessment of the challenges faced by the government. "The Congolese authorities must now take this war very seriously. If Kinshasa thought it was dealing with puppets, that is no longer the case. There are people all over the country who remain loyal to Kabila," Riziki told Al Jazeera. The extent of this loyalty and its potential to translate into organized political or military support remains uncertain. The government has not yet issued an official statement regarding the coalition's announcement. Last week, after Kabila warned of the country's peril, government spokesman Patrick Muyaya stated that the former president had "nothing to offer but chaos" and described him as a "man of the past, nostalgic for anti-democratic methods" in a post on X. The confrontation between Kabila and Tshisekedi reflects a broader struggle for the DRC's political future. However, for civilians in the east, the immediate concern is whether this latest realignment will lead to increased fighting and further postpone a negotiated settlement. "We don’t know if the war will end here," said Juhudi.